The Buch stops here

One Gaels’ team’s still going that I haven’t predicted the second round for yet, so I figured I’d throw it in for the sake of completeness. By the way, I’ve gone 5-2 so far, with my only misses being the men’s volleyball finals and the women’s basketball quarter-finals. The women’s hockey semifinals are still in progress: they lost last night’s series opener against the Laurier Golden Hawks, so they would have to win both tonight and tomorrow to advance to the OUA finals.

Men’s basketball:
Regular-season record: 14-8
Regular-season standing: Fourth in OUA East
Quarter-finals: Beat 7-15 York Lions 75-57 Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Semifinals: Face 22-0 Carleton Ravens at the Ravens’ Nest in Ottawa tonight at 8 p.m.
Prediction: Second-round loss

The men’s basketball team did a terrific job in their quarter-final matchup, taking down a dangerous York team. Lions’ star Tut Ruach scorched Queen’s for a game-high 25 points, but the Gaels were able to hold the rest of the York offense in check. Fourth-year guard Simon Mitchell and second-year forward Mitch Leger—respectively named to the cishoops.ca first and second OUA East All-Star teams Friday—both had great games. Mitchell scored 18 points with a blistering 46.7 field goal percentage and added three steals, four assists and five rebounds, while Leger put up a team-high 20 points and also grabbed six rebounds. The Gaels also showcased their depth: four players recorded double digits in points, and five players grabbed five rebounds or more.

Unfortunately for the team, though, their fourth-place regular season finish means they face the Carleton Ravens, Canada’s most fearsome basketball dynasty, in the second round. The Ravens are the CIS equivalent of the Los Angeles Lakers or Boston Celtics, except even more dominant—they’ve won the last five national championships and won 87 straight games from 2003 to 2006. They were a perfect 22-0 this year, and have won their last 25 games: logically, they’re also ranked first in the country. Queen’s head coach Rob Smart told the Kingston Whig-Standard Wednesday that the Gaels are an extreme long-shot.

“If we were in Vegas, I’d say we’d be looking at about 1,000 to one,” Smart said.

Smart is undoubtedly exaggerating a bit here, especially given that Carleton only won their regular-season finale against the Ottawa Gee-Gees—a team Queen’s defeated earlier this year—by two points. History is certainly on the Ravens’ side, though: Queen’s has lost its last 18 games against Carleton, and Smart has never won against Ravens’ head coach Dave Smart, his younger brother, in OUA competition.

There are factors that could suggest Queen’s has a chance, though. They’ve done well against Ottawa this season, and the Gee-Gees have come close to beating the Ravens twice, only losing by four and two points. The Gaels have also defended well against Carleton, holding them to 71 and 76 points respectively in their two clashes, well below Carleton’s season average of 81.23. Queen’s is averaging 72.77 points offensively, and has Canada’s fifth-best defense, allowing only 65.41 points per game on average. If their offense clicks and their defense holds, they have a good shot.

Preparation, momentum and rivalry are also in the Gaels’ favour. Rob Smart told me before the team’s first-round match against York that they weren’t even practising strategies to stop the Lions, but were instead preparing for the seemingly inevitable second-round date with Carleton. At the time, I thought it was overconfidence that might come back to bite them against a good York team. It has worked so far, though, so the extra focus on tactics to stop the Ravens might come in handy. The Gaels also have momentum on their side after a dominating performance against the Lions, while Carleton sat idle due to their first-round bye. Frequently, long layoffs between matches come back to haunt teams: consider the Ottawa Senators in last year’s Stanley Cup Finals, where they came out flat after a nine-day break between rounds, promptly lost the first two games and never recovered. Finally, rivalry should be a huge advantage for Queen’s. For Carleton, this is just another game: for the Gaels, it’s a chance to avenge a decade of humiliation. You can also bet that Rob Smart wants to finally get a win against his family: in addition to facing Dave, his son, Rob Smart Jr. is an assistant coach with the Ravens.

Despite all this, the Ravens still have to be favoured to win this one. They are the most dominant team in Canadian basketball, and it’s very tough to bet against them. Queen’s has a lot of factors going for them that could lead to a potential upset, and should at least keep this one close, but in the end Carleton’s experience may prove decisive: they have a roster full of veterans, while the Gaels are stocked with primarily first- and second-year players. The Ravens’ dominance will surely end someday, and there are reasons to think this may very well be the day, but they aren’t compelling enough to convince me that a historic upset will definitely occur. The Gaels have as good a shot as anyone in Ontario at knocking Carleton off this season, but at the end of the day, the Ravens still look likely to soar.

The OUA playoffs operate at a weird pace—the men’s volleyball team start their OUA Final series tonight, while the men’s basketball team won’t play their quarter-final match until tomorrow. In light of this, I figured it would be appropriate to offer predictions for the second-round matchups that have already been set in men’s volleyball and women’s hockey, even though the first round isn’t wrapped up in other sports. By the way, this blog’s record so far is 3-1—the smear on my transcript thus far comes from the women’s basketball team’s loss to Carleton Saturday.

Men’s volleyball

Regular-season record: 14-6
Regular-season standing: Second in OUA
Quarter-finals: Bye
Semifinals: Beat 10-10 Ryerson Rams Saturday at home in four sets.
Finals: Face 20-0 McMaster Marauders in a best-of-three series: the first match is tonight at Bartlett Gym; the second clash is in Hamilton Thursday. If a third match is required, it will be Saturday in Hamilton.
History: Beat McMaster in three matches in last year’s OUA finals but lost both regular-season games to them this year.
Prediction: Gaels’ victory in three matches.

This is a tough one to call. McMaster has been amazingly dominant this year, and knocked off Queen’s twice. The games have been close, though—Queen’s lost in five sets in Hamilton before the winter break, and dropped a four-set regular season finale a few weeks ago where Gaels’ head coach Brenda Willis rested several key players, including OUA Rookie of the Year Joren Zeeman and Libero of the Year Stu Hamilton. McMaster certainly has the edge on paper, as no one has been able to stop them yet. Meanwhile, Queen’s only clinched a first-round playoff bye on the last weekend of the season with a straight-set sweep of Guelph. The Gaels barely crept into the final CIS Top 10 Coaches’ Poll in the 10th and final spot—McMaster moved up one notch to second overall.

This hasn’t been a year for undefeated teams, though, and hubris might come back to haunt the Marauders. Despite the Gaels’ sometimes inconsistent performances this year, they’ve shown that when they’re on, they can play with the best—the three-set sweep of Guelph with the crucial second seed on the line being the most recent example. The historical rivalry between the teams certainly sets Queen’s up as potential giant-killers—rarely has a two-time defending conference champion received so little respect in terms of polls and rankings, but my bet’s on the Gaels using that for the necessary motivation to go out there and pull off the win.

Something else that bolsters my belief in the Gaels is comparing how the teams have changed since last year. The Gaels lost a few important figures to graduation, most notably libero Steve Willis, but Hamilton—who held the role for much of the regular season last year due to Willis’ school commitments—has done a tremendous job of improving his own play to fill that gap; his Libero of the Year award shows that position won’t be a loss for Queen’s. Outside hitter Luke Lichty’s also absent from the roster, but in evidence on the bench and one of the team’s most fervent supporters—he was never able to completely recover from a shoulder injury in the off-season, and decided a little while ago to sit out for the remainder of the year. His play’s certainly missed, but his support and experience are still valuable. A similar story applies to Andrew Bridgeman, an important fifth-year player for last year’s Gaels who made the transition to helping out as an assistant coach this year.

The Gaels’ gains more than offset their losses. They brought in six extremely talented rookies this year. Will Bulmer’s missed most of the year with an arm injury, while Dan Rosenbaum sees limited playing time due to the continued excellence of setter Devon Miller and Bryan Fautley is also sparingly used. Zeeman, Niko Rukavina and Michael Amoroso have all made huge contributions to the team, and threaten the veterans for starting jobs on a regular basis: in fact, all three started the Gaels’ semifinal match against Ryerson.

By contrast, McMaster has only one rookie who has made a considerable contribution this year: Josh Lichty, Luke’s younger brother. As I noticed at the Gaels-Marauders clash two weekends ago, he’s certainly a talented player: in fact, Willis said she tried heavily to recruit him, along with most of the other coaches in the country, due to his national junior team experience. He made the OUA All-Rookie Team, but he’s no match for the combination of Zeeman, Rukavina and Amoroso: Zeeman’s Rookie of the Year Award shows the OUA coaches consider him to be the top player of this year’s first-year class.

The Gaels’ other advantage is their bench strength. They have a tremendous variety of players who can bring different approaches to the table. Guys like Zeeman and Jeff De Meza are fantastic power hitters but somewhat weaker on defence, while others like Dan McCrae and Rukavina go more for placement with their hitting and pull off a lot of digs. The veteran leadership from the likes of McCrae, Nick Gralewicz and Chris Vandyk is invaluable, but so is the rookies’ pure energy. They also have a solid serve-and-defend specialist in Pete Galbraith and versatile players like Sam Pedlow who can contribute in a variety of roles. The many different looks, options and offensive strategies the Gaels bring to the table should be enough to push them over the top.

A lot is on the line for these teams: it’s not just the Ontario championship that’s at stake, but also a berth in the national finals next month in Quebec. Laval University claims one of the eight spots as host, and the Quebec and Atlantic champions also receive berths. Due to Western Canadian teams finishing 1-2-3 at last year’s championships, Canada West has four of the remaining spots, leaving just one for the Ontario champions. It’s all up for grabs here: winning this series gives you a shot at national glory; a loss ends your season. I think the Gaels have what it takes to perform when the chips are down—we’ll have to see if events vindicate me.

Women’s hockey

Regular-season record: 12-9-6-0
Regular-season standing: Fourth in OUA East
Quarter-final opponent: Beat 11-11-4-1 York Lions 2-0 at home Saturday.
Semifinal opponent: Face 23-2-2 Laurier Golden Hawks in a best-of-three series: Game 1 is at home Friday at 7:30 p.m., while the second and third games will be on the road.
Prediction: Defeat in three games.

This is an unfortunate matchup for the women’s team: Laurier is undisputedly one of the toughest teams in the country (ranked third in the last CIS Top 10 Coaches Poll), while Queen’s didn’t even crack those rankings all season. Rankings aren’t always everything, and there’s certainly the chance of an upset—magnified because one of the Hawks’ only two losses this year was to the Gaels. I think it’s going to be a close series, but in the end Laurier will be able to pull off the win.

If a Queen’s victory does occur, it will likely be due to the stellar play of goalie Melissa John. John stood on her head Jan. 25 against the Golden Hawks, when she stopped all 41 shots she faced to earn her first shutout of the year, which came with the nice bonus of the OUA and CIS female athlete of the week awards. John’s certainly capable of stealing a game or two, and if the Gaels win the series, she’ll likely be the reason why.

For long-term success, though, which is essential in a three-game series, the Gaels will have to get more shots on the net. They only recorded 14 in that game against Laurier, and only scored one goal proper (the other one was an empty-net goal): that kind of offence leaves no margin for error by your superstar goalie, as Vancouver Canucks’ fans know well. They certainly have plenty of offensively talented players, led by Liz Kench and captain Cassie Sparks—they’ll need more from them if they want to succeed against the Hawks. Queen’s recorded 30 shots against York, which was certainly a step in the right direction: if they continue on that path, they’ll hopefully prove me wrong and knock off the Golden Hawks.

But as I’ve mentioned before, the unfortunate thing with Cinderella stories is they usually don’t turn out to be true. The clock frequently strikes midnight on the underdogs, which is sad to see but a usual fact of life, as the favourites are often just too powerful. Laurier’s a dominant team at both ends of the ice: they’re led offensively by forward Lauren Barch, whose 32 points on the season are eighth-best in Canada and second-best in Ontario. Defensively, they have Liz Knox keeping the pucks out: her astounding 0.98 goals-against average is the best in Ontario, and the second-best in CIS competition behind only McGill’s Charline Labonte. She also boasts a sparkling .944 save percentage and seven shutouts. John is only five slots back on the CIS goals-against average list, but her 1.91 mark is almost double that recorded by Knox. John has been hot lately though, as all three of her shutouts have come since the Gaels’ Jan. 25 win over Laurier. Many underdogs have succeeded in hockey, especially with a goalie on a hot streak: here’s hoping the Gaels can be one of them.

Brief mentions:

Men’s hockey is technically playing a second-round series against the McGill Redmen starting Wednesday: but due to their first-round bye, I lumped them in with the teams in my previous post. It’s unfortunate the Redmen knocked off Carleton, as I thought Queen’s would have been able to handle either the University of Toronto or the University of Ottawa. McGill’s a premier hockey school, though, and head coach Brett Gibson told me earlier this year (after a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Redmen in November) that McGill’s program is what the Gaels are trying to emulate.

“It was just a good old-fashioned butt-kicking,” he said. “When you take nine of 10 points, you start thinking you’re better than you really are. … McGill came in and proved why they’re one of the best programs in the country, and they’re the benchmark where we really need to be.”

Quotes like that certainly don’t inspire dreams of an upset, and that performance was amazing by the standards of the 10-1 thumping the Gaels took in Montreal in January. To their credit, that loss seemed to inspire the team somewhat, and they played better down the stretch. But they couldn’t clinch the second seed on their own after a loss to lowly Ryerson and wound up only claiming the bye thanks to an amazing choke job by the University of Toronto. They’ve certainly got some great players: Ryan Gibb is one of the best goalies in the CIS, and if anyone can steal a series, he can. Captain Jeff Ovens reminds me of a young Trevor Linden, as his heart and intensity have also been matched by his offensive contributions. The team also gets solid performances from the likes of Brady Olsen and Jon Lawrance. In the end, though, I think they’re good enough to keep it close against McGill, and perhaps even good enough to force a third game, but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off.

Prediction: McGill in 3

Also, quick congratulations to the fencing, curling and wrestling teams. Joanne Ko took home a gold medal in épée for the women’s fencing team, which also won a bronze in the team épée event. Coach Hugh Munby was recognized for his work with the team with the OUA women’s coach of the year award as well. On the men’s side, Greg Nonato won a bronze in sabre and led the sabre team to another bronze.

In curling, the women’s team took home an impressive silver medal after a close 8-5 loss to Laurier in the final. It was a great performance by them to get that far. The men’s team lost to Western in the semi-finals.

In wrestling, Eric Bertrand took home a bronze for the Gaels at the OUA championships last Sunday, booking himself a ticket to Calgary for the CIS championships in the process. The men’s team finished seventh overall. Unfortunately Shannon Mullins, who’s one of the country’s best wrestlers, wasn’t able to compete due to injury: she probably would have been able to also earn a national slot.

Last brief mention: the track-and-field team competes in the OUA finals in Windsor this weekend. Track’s a tough sport for detailed predictions, but they should do reasonably well: they’ve been bringing home some great medal hauls this year, particularly in the distance running events where they have stars like Braden Novakowski, Matt Hulse and Leslie Sexton.

The start of Reading Week is also the most important time for the Gaels’ winter sporting teams as they gear up for the postseason. Here are my predictions on how the basketball, volleyball and hockey teams will do in the first round.

Men’s basketball

Record: 14-8
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host either 7-14 Ryerson Rams or 6-15 York Lions Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Prediction: First-round victory

The basketball team will face a different set of challenges depending on if they play York or Ryerson. Ryerson closes the season this weekend with a tough game against the 16-5 University of Toronto Varsity Blues, while York has an easier match, hosting the 4-17 Laurentian Voyageurs (by the way, if anyone has a good reason to place a team from Sudbury in the OUA East, please let me know!). The 16-5 University of Ottawa Gee-Gees also play the 21-0 Carleton Ravens on the weekend, so the second seed is still to be determined between them and Toronto. Toronto and York hold the tie-breaker advantage in case of equal records.

Queen’s swept both York and Ryerson during the regular season, beating the Lions 78-56 and 74-67 while besting the Rams 79-74 and 77-69. Both teams pose considerable danger to the Gaels. Ryerson’s main threat is the Bakovic brothers— Boris, who leads the OUA with 23.81 points per game and 500 points overall and is second in rebounds per game with 8.52, and Igor, who leads the league with 10 rebounds per game—a formidable combination. York, on the other hand, relies on a single star, point guard Tut Ruach, who’s fourth in the league with 18.81 points per game. Both teams’ key players have the ability to dominate games—in the Feb. 9 York-Ryerson match, the Bakovics combined for 45 points and 25 rebounds en route to a 89-81 Rams victory, while Ruach chipped in 30-plus points for the Lions in the second straight game in a row (he wound up with 31 on the night).

The previous evening, Ruach had one of the most outstanding second half performances I’ve ever heard of, scoring 31 of his 32 points after the halftime break to lead the Lions to a shocking upset of the highly ranked Varsity Blues. Respected basketball authority Mark Wacyk of cishoops.ca described Ruach’s play in the second half as “absolutely unstoppable … probably the most electrifying performance in one half by one player all season long.” Regardless which team the Gaels face, it’s clear that shutting down their stars will be the key to victory: defensive specialists like Tim Boyle and Nick DiDonato will have to be at the top of their game.

One thing that’s a little concerning is head coach Rob Smart’s comments to me on the playoff matchup after Wednesday’s 75-53 trouncing of the Royal Military College Paladins. Smart said he isn’t even targeting their first-round opposition, and is instead looking ahead to the looming possibility of a second-round date with Carleton (which could only be avoided if the sixth-seeded team upsets the third-seed of either Toronto or the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees in the first round). “If we can beat Carleton in the second round, if we’re good enough to beat Carleton, we’re probably good enough to win the first round,” he said. While it was refreshing to hear something other than the standard “We have to take it one game at a time,” cliché, both York and Ryerson have shown that they have what it takes to play with the big teams, especially with York’s recent upset of Toronto.
That upset also shows it’s not out of the question that the sixth-seeded team could take down whichever of Toronto or Ottawa winds up in the third slot, leaving the Gaels to play the second-seeded team in the second round instead of Carleton. I’m not advocating that the Gaels ignore the possibility of a Carleton matchup, as it remains a pretty likely scenario: it just seems dangerously overconfident to underestimate either the Rams or the Lions, both of which have the players to potentially pull off an upset. Nevertheless, in the end I think Queen’s depth will be enough to see them through the first round. They have a star forward in Mitch Leger who can go almost point-for-point with Ruach or Bakovic, but their real advantage is their other scoring threats like the Mitchell brothers and Jon Ogden. If Queen’s defensive specialists can limit the damage caused by the stars of York or Ryerson, they should be able to take this one.

Women’s basketball:

Record: 9-13
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host 8-14 Carleton Ravens Saturday at 2 p.m. in Bartlett Gym.
Prediction: First-round victory

It has been a bit of an off-year for the women’s basketball team, and certainly a reversal from last year’s 13-9 regular-season record. Last season, they earned a first-round bye, beat Laurentian in the semifinals and then fell to York in the eastern final. Their performance certainly hasn’t been helped by the absence of Jess Selinger—one of last year’s standouts—due to injury, but this isn’t a particularly young team. Most of last year’s players, with the notable exception of Claire Meadows, have returned, and they run a veteran-heavy lineup most of the time.

In my mind, the Gaels have played somewhat inconsistently for much of the year—they beat 15-7 Laurentian but lost to 3-19 Ottawa—which has led to their current place in the standings. They split their games against the Ravens this year, pulling off an amazing fourth-quarter comeback to win 69-64 at home, but falling 61-50 on the road last weekend. If this team plays the way they’re capable of, they’re more than talented enough to beat the Ravens, and I think they’ll take their game to a new level when the chips are down. There’s always a chance the Hyde version of the Gaels will show up and suffer a first-round defeat, but I’m predicting they have a Jekyll moment and pull off the win.

Men’s hockey:

Record: 13-12-3
Standing: First in OUA Mid-East Division
First-round opponent: Host 18-9-1 McGill Redmen, 14-12-2 University of Ottawa Gee-Gees or 13-13-2 University of Toronto Varsity Blues in a best-of-three series starting Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Prediction: First-round loss if they face McGill, first-round win over Ottawa or Toronto

This one’s still very much up in the air. Thanks to Toronto’s abysmal choke-job down the stretch, the Gaels won the division and earned a first-round bye, which could be very important: in my mind, it’s probably an advantage to be fresh against a team that’s just come out of a grueling 3-game first-round series. As the NHL has shown, though, long layoffs aren’t always helpful. Queen’s won’t have played for two weeks by the time their playoffs get going, which could come back to haunt them.

The matchup will probably play the key part in this one. McGill had their way with the Gaels this year, beating them 6-2 in Kingston before demolishing them 10-1 in Montreal. You never know what will happen, but McGill has played far better than Queen’s this year in a tougher division, as their record shows. In fact, if it wasn’t for each division winner getting one of the top two slots, the Redmen would have a higher seeding than the Gaels. It’s possible Queen’s can turn it up in the playoffs against their ancient rivals, but I don’t see it as terribly likely.

I foresee less problems with Toronto or Ottawa, though. The Gaels were 0 for 2 against the Blues this year, but Toronto had a tough time down the stretch, losing four out of their last five (two in overtime). The division title was theirs for the taking, and they threw it away: that could come back to bite them after a grueling first-round series with Ottawa. Queen’s split their series with the Gee-Gees this year, winning 2-0 in Ottawa but losing 4-3 in a shootout at the Memorial Centre. Either team will give the Gaels a tight series, but I think if Queen’s gets solid goaltending from Ryan Gibb and a bit of offence from the likes of Brady Olsen, Jeff Ovens, Jon Asselstine and Jon Lawrance, they should be able to beat either opponent.

A quick word on how the seeding breaks down: McGill (seeded third in the OUA East) is in a three-game series with sixth-seeded Carleton, and they won their opener 5-1. They could clinch the series with a win tonight, which would lock them in to a second-round date with Queen’s. The highest remaining seed from the first round faces the Gaels, while the other victor takes on the 22-5-1 Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Patriotes. If Carleton rebounds to beat McGill, they face the Patriotes and the winner of the Toronto-Ottawa matchup (fourth-seeded Ottawa won the opener 3-2 in overtime) takes on Queen’s.

Women’s hockey

Record: 12-9-6-0
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host 11-11-4-1 York Lions Saturday at 8:30 p.m. at the Memorial Centre.
Prediction: First-round victory

Women’s hockey is another sport where Queen’s has slipped this year, if the regular season is any indication—they don’t look like an OUA silver medalist at the moment. Part of that is likely due to the transition to new head coach Rob Lalonde, which is always difficult. The Gaels have been hot lately, winning nine of their last 10 games, and have two goalies playing at the top of their game—Katie Boyd, named the OUA’s female athlete of the week for January 3-6, and Melissa John, who earned the same honour and also received the nod as the CIS female athlete of the week for Jan. 21-27. It looks like the Gaels are starting to click at the right time, so they should be able to take this one, especially given that they’re 3-0 against the Lions this year. Time and time again, though, underdogs have shown the veracity of a slightly modified quote from English writer Leslie Poles Hartley: “The playoffs are a foreign country: they do things differently there.”

Men’s volleyball

Record: 14-6
Standing: Second in OUA
First-round opponent: Host 10-10 Ryerson Rams Saturday at 7 p.m. in Bartlett Gym.
Prediction: First-round victory

Men’s volleyball is where I think the Gaels have the most potential for playoff success. They’re Queen’s only defending OUA champions, after all, and they’ve had a strong year—not as amazing as the 20-0 season the McMaster Marauders put up, but still impressive. They showed their true talent last Friday with a crucial straight-set victory over the Guelph Gryphons, where they had to win in less than five sets to take the tie-breaker, clinch second place and gain the first-round bye. That bye turned out to be somewhat fortunate, as sixth-seeded Ryerson knocked the third-seeded Gryphons out in the first round in a five-set thriller.

Queen’s has had some trouble with Ryerson in the past, notably in the five-set battle I attended in Toronto. But two of the Rams’ big advantages—the low roof that made passing difficult for the Gaels, and the dangerous serving of Oleh Kovalchuk, second in service aces in the OUA to only Queen’s setter Devon Miller—will be negated this time around. Queen’s will be hosting the Rams in the spacious confines of Bartlett Gym, which should greatly help their serve-receive game—as an aside, those same surroundings make Miller’s OUA-leading 38 service aces even more impressive, as he doesn’t usually have a low roof to increase the opponents’ passing difficulties. The difference the surroundings make is evident in the two games the teams played this year: Queen’s knocked off the Rams in straight sets at home, but struggled to a 27-25, 25-23, 23-25, 23-25, 15-11 win on Ryerson’s turf.

Also, Gaels’ head coach Brenda Willis told me Kovalchuk didn’t play very much against Guelph due to injury. The stats show he took part in all five games, but he only recorded two kills, four digs and a service ace, which suggests his action was quite limited. Taking his service threat away would certainly help. The Gaels will need to shut down Ryerson’s star outside hitter Greg McDonald, who racked up 20 kills against the Gryphons, and middle hitter Nicholas Beaver, who added 11 kills. Queen’s has talent of their own in spades, though. Stu Hamilton was named the OUA’s top libero yesterday, while outside hitter Joren Zeeman received the Rookie of the Year award. Miller and outside hitter Jeff DeMeza were also both named to the OUA First All-Star Team. The Gaels’ strong passing and setting, combined with their wide variety of attack options, should be enough to see them through setting the stage for an epic OUA final rematch against McMaster.

Women’s volleyball

Record: 7-12
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
Opponent: Away against 17-2 University of Toronto Varsity Blues tonight.
Prediction: First-round loss.

It has been a transition year for this team. To go with the addition of new head coach Joely Christian, the team’s focus shifted to a youth movement, with second-year outside hitter Louise Hamill and rookies Colleen Ogilvie, Elyssa Heller and Lorna Button all starting regularly. This has paid off at times, as in their upset of the 12-7 York Lions. When this team’s on their game, they can compete with anyone. Youth and inconsistency sometimes walk hand in hand, however, and that has also been the case at times this year when the Gaels have dropped matches to teams like 2-17 Windsor. This team’s on the right track, as shown by their sweep of the 4-15 Lakehead Thunderwolvesin Thunder Bay last weekend to clinch the final playoff spot (as another aside, having a Thunder Bay team in the OUA East is even more ridiculous than including a team from Sudbury) but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to beat the top-ranked Varsity Blues, who are first in the OUA and ranked ninth in the country. Upsets do happen, though, and it would be a great story to have Christian knock off her alma mater’s team, as she used to be an assistant coach at Toronto.

The New York Giants’ 17-14 upset of the 18-0 New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII last Sunday has to go down in history as one of the greatest upsets of all time. Ruining a perfect season, beating an unstoppable team and doing it in the biggest and most crucial game of a season in which everyone expected them to fail means their place in the pantheon of immortal underdogs is forever assured.

Reconsidering the win with the benefit of hindsight, however, there are plenty of ways to rationalize it. The only challenge is picking the best one. Here are some of my favorite candidates:

The Dewey defeats Truman Theory:
After the Boston Globe had a book titled 19-0: The Historic Championship Season of New England’s Undefeatable Patriots available for pre-order on Amazon.com a week before the game, surely it was clear that the Patriots couldn’t win. The moral of the story for newspapers and writers everywhere: planning ahead is great, but don’t leak your planning; things often won’t work out the way you had hoped.

The Shadows of Spygate Theory:
Perhaps Senator Arlen Specter’s questions about why the NFL quickly destroyed the video evidence of the Patriots’ Week I signal-stealing—combined with the Boston Herald’s revelation that the Patriots may have used similar tactics in the lead-up to their 2002 Super Bowl win over the St. Louis Rams—distracted the Patriots from their mission.

The Joe Namath Theory:
There was once a quarterback on an underdog New York team favoured to lose Super Bowl III by an 18-point spread (even larger than the Patriots-Giants 14-point spread) who boldly guaranteed a victory before the game. At the time, he was treated with derision, much as Giants’ receiver Plaxico Burress was when he made his own prediction. But Joe Namath’s guarantee led to his immortalization after he backed it up on the field, despite the rest of his career stats being somewhat lacklustre. Burress not only got the winner right, but got the score almost right (he predicted 23-17), which was even tougher. Perhaps the Namath parallels were strong enough that the football gods looked down on Burress and the Giants and decreed such a bold statement of faith couldn’t go unrewarded.

The Bill Simmons Jinx Theory:
After one of America’s most famous sportswriters wrote a column comparing the Patriots to the 1986 Boston Celtics and debating which one was the greatest team of all time, there were many assertions he had inevitably condemned the Patriots to losing. He even admitted it in this week’s column, saying, “And by the way, I think we have a final verdict. And then some.”

The Mike Woods Jinx Theory:
Similar to the Simmons Jinx, but on a much more local level. Our esteemed sports editor predicted an undefeated season for the Patriots not once, but twice, and came far too close to being right for my liking: I originally didn’t think they would get even an undefeated regular season. But perhaps his endorsement’s weight got to the Patriots’ heads. Funnily enough, Mike’s uncle wrote a humourous letter to this paper suggesting that this theory was the real reason New England lost.

The One Man Can Only Have So Much Success Theory:
Everything went right this season for Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady: he set numerous career, franchise and league records, he was named the NFL’s MVP (with 49 out of 50 votes), he won the ’ Sportsman of the Year award , was named the ’s Male Athlete of the Year and continued to date Brazilian supermodel Gisele Bundchen. Surely there’s a limit to what one guy can accomplish.

The Curse of the ’72 Dolphins Theory:
The only NFL team to go undefeated, the 1972 Miami Dolphins (who went 14-0 due to a shorter schedule in those days), made themselves as prominent as always when a team threatens perfection. There’s a rumour that they always get together and share a bottle of champagne when the last undefeated team falls each year. They were certainly urging on the Giants, and perhaps added even more motivation to the fire, as was obvious in TSN’s post-game interview with New York cornerback Sam Madison. At the end of his interview, Madison shouted into the camera, “To the ’72 Dolphins: Pop that champagne, baby!” Perhaps their looming spectre (and they’re old enough that some of them look like spectres these days) got into the Patriots’ heads.

The Hug It Out Theory:
After Brady led the Patriots on a go-ahead touchdown drive with little time left, the cameras caught Patriot linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau in a sideline embrace. They looked jubilant enough to have already won the game, which perhaps means that the defense was too overconfident on the last Giants’ drive. It also could just mean that pro athletes should wait until the game’s over to “hug it out” on camera.

The Sibling Rivalry Theory:
Eli Manning has probably felt pressure to live up to older brother Peyton’s performances ever since he was taken first overall in the 2004 draft largely based on his last name. With father Archie (himself a famous NFL quarterback) and Peyton both watching from the stands, Eli possibly felt the need to live up to their legacies. Also, this was his best and greatest chance to step out of his brother’s shadow and make a name for himself, which he certainly did: it never hurts to have that extra motivation.

The Million-to-One Shot Theory
Manning’s miraculous evasion of two Patriots’ linemen who were hanging onto his shirt and his ensuing Hail Mary pass downfield to little-used receiver David Tyree—who made the even more improbable
“Helmet-Catch”—certainly comes across as having a million-to-one chance of success. But as British author Terry Pratchett points out in his classic novel , narrative convention means million-to-one chances happen nine times out of 10, as long as the probability is exactly a
million to one. This sequence, given the identities of the quarterback (Manning, who has never been known as the most mobile pivot in the league), the receiver (Tyree, who actually had more tackles than catches this year due to primarily featuring on special teams), the pass rushers and the defensive secondary (both among the league’s better units), was certainly improbable enough to qualify.

The Hollywood Theory
Closely related to the Million-to-One Shot Theory, this theory assumes sporting outcomes are driven by the kind of movie they would make. A movie about an undefeated season is cool, sure enough, but wouldn’t you rather see the underdog triumph in the end? This is the reason we have umpteen Star Wars, Rocky and Mighty Ducks movies: no one likes to see the overwhelming favorite win. Rather than see an insignificantly small rebellion thoroughly crushed by the might of a totalitarian empire, we want to see the snubfighter blow up the massive battle station, the nobody take down the fiercest boxer, and the cold female goalie stop “Gunner” Stahl on the patented triple deke. We like to see the Average Joes knock off the Globo Gym gladiators, filled with guys like “Blazer” and “Lazer”. This outcome produces possibly the greatest scenario for a true underdog movie ever (the “Miracle on Ice” came close, but the Americans’ 1980 upset of the Soviets occurred in the semifinals rather than the championship match, and nothing much actually happened in the last 10 minutes of the game). Thus, things had to go this way.

The Sportswriter’s Dream Theory
For those like myself who approve of some corny sports-based humour, particularly of the ironic variety, this scenario provides the ultimate gold mine. What else gives you the chance to talk about Giants playing David, or a New York team in terms usually reserved for small-town heroes? There are infinite puns within the game itself as well, such as riffing on the Patriots’ QB (who looked more like a “Brady Bunch” cast member than a NFL MVP), discussing the halftime show (which appropriately featured Tom Petty performing “Free Falling”) and my usual takes on the fine band They Might Be Giants (Terry Pratchett should get credit for the one I used as this post’s headline, though). Clearly, comedic laws also required a Giants’ victory.

The Stick it to “The Man” Theory
This comes out of reports that Vegas sports books lost $2.6 million on the Super Bowl, due to the great odds they were giving on the Giants and the many people willing to take them. As Jay Kornegay, the executive director of the Las Vegas Hilton’s book, told the Associated Press, this shows the impulse towards underdogs. “People came into Las Vegas and they wanted to root for David,” he said. “The last two days, all I hear is, ‘I told you so.’” Other interesting tidbits from this article: it was the first time the Vegas casinos lost money on the Super Bowl since 1995—when they only lost $400,000—and the
so-called “smart money” from experienced handicappers heavily favoured the Patriots. But the average fans gravitated towards New York. Perhaps the little guys were due for a win.

The Karma Theory
My personal favorite. As Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star reported on his blog, Patriots’ coach Bill Belichick had been an absolute jerk towards the media and the fans from his first days in Cleveland. More recently, he had continued that public persona while also embroiling his team in “Spygate.” As shown by an e-mail Simmons quoted in his Thursday mailbag from reader Mike from Nashville, TN, there are plenty of people who hate Belichick’s guts.
“Let there be no mistake, Bill Belichick is an evil man—evil in every way that only those who believe in the physical reality of the devil can understand. He is utterly without ethics or morals or any bedrock sense of decency. Few have trusted him, and let’s hope that no one ever trusts the cheating *$&*#! again.”
Maybe you really only can be evil for so long before it comes back to haunt you …

Today could have been a crucial day in the English Premier League title race. Arsenal won 3-1 in an early game at home against Manchester City to retake the top spot, and then Manchester United looked sure to lose for 92 minutes against Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane. To keep things interesting, though, Argentine striker Carlos Tevez fired home the equalizer in the third minute of stoppage time to earn United a point and avert a disastrous defeat.

Tottenham played a brilliant game, defending with a ferocity that has rarely featured in their side. They’ve always been strong in attack but have had trouble taking care of business in their own end until recently: things appear to be different under new manager Juande Ramos, though. They were able to shut down United’s midfield passing game and occasionally created chances of their own off dangerous counter-attacks. Their goal was somewhat questionable, as Jermaine Jenas clearly hit the ball with his hand as he fell, nudging it to Aaron Lennon. Lennon’s shot was stopped by United keeper Edwin Van der Sar, but the rebound fell straight to Russian striker Dmitry Berbatov, who made no mistake and drilled it home from six yards out. Despite doubts about the integrity of Spurs’ strike, they certainly deserved to take at least a point from this match given their effort.

United, on the other hand, were less than impressive. They struggled to get any sort of flow to their passing game, and weren’t able to create too much offensively. They also didn’t seem to play with the same intensity Tottenham brought to the match, which shows how sorely they miss former captain Roy Keane, who’s now managing Sunderland. The most likely successors to Keane seem to be hard-tackling Canadian midfielder Owen Hargreaves and English striker Wayne Rooney, but Hargreaves isn’t the vocal presence Keane was and Rooney is certainly intense, but not always effective. Rooney had a good game, though, tracking back all the way to his own 16-yard box several times to help out the defenders. As Setanta Sports match commentator Martin Fisher pointed out, however, Rooney’s own frustration showed at times—particularly towards the end when he went down easily to try and draw a free kick rather than pressing on and taking a shot.

“He got away from Dawson, and chose the easy option for once of going to ground,” Fisher said.

As Fisher said, this was certainly out of character for Rooney. It does raise questions about him as Keane’s successor, though: Keane probably wouldn’t have gone down with the ball loose if he had broken his leg. That drive and determination are what United could surely use at the moment, and someone will have to step up. One possibility is wing back and captain Gary Neville, who’s still trying to recover from an ankle injury he suffered last year. If Neville’s able to return, his leadership will certainly make a difference down the stretch.

Spurs did a great job of neutralizing United’s most potent offensive weapon, Portuguese winger Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo looked dangerous at times but never really threatened the Tottenham goal, which is highly unusual for him this season. As commentators Fisher and Lou Macari pointed out, though, the rest of the team needs to step up, offensively: they can’t rely on Ronaldo to do everything.

In the end, though, United did what great sides do: they pulled something out of absolutely nothing (or as Journal photo editor Harrison Smith would say, turned lead into gold). A corner from Ronaldo on the last play of the game—which looked as innocent as the eight before it that were cleared away—fell straight to Tevez, who made no mistake and drove it into the net to salvage a point. It was really the only weakness Tottenham showed all day, and United took full advantage, as Macari said.
“They made one mistake in 90 minutes, the Spurs defence, and they paid for it,” he said.

That single glimmer of hope for United in what was otherwise an uninspiring match means today’s results are far less significant. Sure, they drop behind Arsenal for the moment, but there’s still a lot of football to be played. The ability to salvage a point from a tough fixture like this indicates there’s likely better to come down the stretch, and means the title race is still very much a dead heat. This should make for some great games as the season goes on.