The start of Reading Week is also the most important time for the Gaels’ winter sporting teams as they gear up for the postseason. Here are my predictions on how the basketball, volleyball and hockey teams will do in the first round.
Men’s basketball
Record: 14-8
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host either 7-14 Ryerson Rams or 6-15 York Lions Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Prediction: First-round victory
The basketball team will face a different set of challenges depending on if they play York or Ryerson. Ryerson closes the season this weekend with a tough game against the 16-5 University of Toronto Varsity Blues, while York has an easier match, hosting the 4-17 Laurentian Voyageurs (by the way, if anyone has a good reason to place a team from Sudbury in the OUA East, please let me know!). The 16-5 University of Ottawa Gee-Gees also play the 21-0 Carleton Ravens on the weekend, so the second seed is still to be determined between them and Toronto. Toronto and York hold the tie-breaker advantage in case of equal records.
Queen’s swept both York and Ryerson during the regular season, beating the Lions 78-56 and 74-67 while besting the Rams 79-74 and 77-69. Both teams pose considerable danger to the Gaels. Ryerson’s main threat is the Bakovic brothers— Boris, who leads the OUA with 23.81 points per game and 500 points overall and is second in rebounds per game with 8.52, and Igor, who leads the league with 10 rebounds per game—a formidable combination. York, on the other hand, relies on a single star, point guard Tut Ruach, who’s fourth in the league with 18.81 points per game. Both teams’ key players have the ability to dominate games—in the Feb. 9 York-Ryerson match, the Bakovics combined for 45 points and 25 rebounds en route to a 89-81 Rams victory, while Ruach chipped in 30-plus points for the Lions in the second straight game in a row (he wound up with 31 on the night).
The previous evening, Ruach had one of the most outstanding second half performances I’ve ever heard of, scoring 31 of his 32 points after the halftime break to lead the Lions to a shocking upset of the highly ranked Varsity Blues. Respected basketball authority Mark Wacyk of cishoops.ca described Ruach’s play in the second half as “absolutely unstoppable … probably the most electrifying performance in one half by one player all season long.” Regardless which team the Gaels face, it’s clear that shutting down their stars will be the key to victory: defensive specialists like Tim Boyle and Nick DiDonato will have to be at the top of their game.
One thing that’s a little concerning is head coach Rob Smart’s comments to me on the playoff matchup after Wednesday’s 75-53 trouncing of the Royal Military College Paladins. Smart said he isn’t even targeting their first-round opposition, and is instead looking ahead to the looming possibility of a second-round date with Carleton (which could only be avoided if the sixth-seeded team upsets the third-seed of either Toronto or the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees in the first round). “If we can beat Carleton in the second round, if we’re good enough to beat Carleton, we’re probably good enough to win the first round,” he said. While it was refreshing to hear something other than the standard “We have to take it one game at a time,” cliché, both York and Ryerson have shown that they have what it takes to play with the big teams, especially with York’s recent upset of Toronto.
That upset also shows it’s not out of the question that the sixth-seeded team could take down whichever of Toronto or Ottawa winds up in the third slot, leaving the Gaels to play the second-seeded team in the second round instead of Carleton. I’m not advocating that the Gaels ignore the possibility of a Carleton matchup, as it remains a pretty likely scenario: it just seems dangerously overconfident to underestimate either the Rams or the Lions, both of which have the players to potentially pull off an upset. Nevertheless, in the end I think Queen’s depth will be enough to see them through the first round. They have a star forward in Mitch Leger who can go almost point-for-point with Ruach or Bakovic, but their real advantage is their other scoring threats like the Mitchell brothers and Jon Ogden. If Queen’s defensive specialists can limit the damage caused by the stars of York or Ryerson, they should be able to take this one.
Women’s basketball:
Record: 9-13
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host 8-14 Carleton Ravens Saturday at 2 p.m. in Bartlett Gym.
Prediction: First-round victory
It has been a bit of an off-year for the women’s basketball team, and certainly a reversal from last year’s 13-9 regular-season record. Last season, they earned a first-round bye, beat Laurentian in the semifinals and then fell to York in the eastern final. Their performance certainly hasn’t been helped by the absence of Jess Selinger—one of last year’s standouts—due to injury, but this isn’t a particularly young team. Most of last year’s players, with the notable exception of Claire Meadows, have returned, and they run a veteran-heavy lineup most of the time.
In my mind, the Gaels have played somewhat inconsistently for much of the year—they beat 15-7 Laurentian but lost to 3-19 Ottawa—which has led to their current place in the standings. They split their games against the Ravens this year, pulling off an amazing fourth-quarter comeback to win 69-64 at home, but falling 61-50 on the road last weekend. If this team plays the way they’re capable of, they’re more than talented enough to beat the Ravens, and I think they’ll take their game to a new level when the chips are down. There’s always a chance the Hyde version of the Gaels will show up and suffer a first-round defeat, but I’m predicting they have a Jekyll moment and pull off the win.
Men’s hockey:
Record: 13-12-3
Standing: First in OUA Mid-East Division
First-round opponent: Host 18-9-1 McGill Redmen, 14-12-2 University of Ottawa Gee-Gees or 13-13-2 University of Toronto Varsity Blues in a best-of-three series starting Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Prediction: First-round loss if they face McGill, first-round win over Ottawa or Toronto
This one’s still very much up in the air. Thanks to Toronto’s abysmal choke-job down the stretch, the Gaels won the division and earned a first-round bye, which could be very important: in my mind, it’s probably an advantage to be fresh against a team that’s just come out of a grueling 3-game first-round series. As the NHL has shown, though, long layoffs aren’t always helpful. Queen’s won’t have played for two weeks by the time their playoffs get going, which could come back to haunt them.
The matchup will probably play the key part in this one. McGill had their way with the Gaels this year, beating them 6-2 in Kingston before demolishing them 10-1 in Montreal. You never know what will happen, but McGill has played far better than Queen’s this year in a tougher division, as their record shows. In fact, if it wasn’t for each division winner getting one of the top two slots, the Redmen would have a higher seeding than the Gaels. It’s possible Queen’s can turn it up in the playoffs against their ancient rivals, but I don’t see it as terribly likely.
I foresee less problems with Toronto or Ottawa, though. The Gaels were 0 for 2 against the Blues this year, but Toronto had a tough time down the stretch, losing four out of their last five (two in overtime). The division title was theirs for the taking, and they threw it away: that could come back to bite them after a grueling first-round series with Ottawa. Queen’s split their series with the Gee-Gees this year, winning 2-0 in Ottawa but losing 4-3 in a shootout at the Memorial Centre. Either team will give the Gaels a tight series, but I think if Queen’s gets solid goaltending from Ryan Gibb and a bit of offence from the likes of Brady Olsen, Jeff Ovens, Jon Asselstine and Jon Lawrance, they should be able to beat either opponent.
A quick word on how the seeding breaks down: McGill (seeded third in the OUA East) is in a three-game series with sixth-seeded Carleton, and they won their opener 5-1. They could clinch the series with a win tonight, which would lock them in to a second-round date with Queen’s. The highest remaining seed from the first round faces the Gaels, while the other victor takes on the 22-5-1 Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Patriotes. If Carleton rebounds to beat McGill, they face the Patriotes and the winner of the Toronto-Ottawa matchup (fourth-seeded Ottawa won the opener 3-2 in overtime) takes on Queen’s.
Women’s hockey
Record: 12-9-6-0
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host 11-11-4-1 York Lions Saturday at 8:30 p.m. at the Memorial Centre.
Prediction: First-round victory
Women’s hockey is another sport where Queen’s has slipped this year, if the regular season is any indication—they don’t look like an OUA silver medalist at the moment. Part of that is likely due to the transition to new head coach Rob Lalonde, which is always difficult. The Gaels have been hot lately, winning nine of their last 10 games, and have two goalies playing at the top of their game—Katie Boyd, named the OUA’s female athlete of the week for January 3-6, and Melissa John, who earned the same honour and also received the nod as the CIS female athlete of the week for Jan. 21-27. It looks like the Gaels are starting to click at the right time, so they should be able to take this one, especially given that they’re 3-0 against the Lions this year. Time and time again, though, underdogs have shown the veracity of a slightly modified quote from English writer Leslie Poles Hartley: “The playoffs are a foreign country: they do things differently there.”
Men’s volleyball
Record: 14-6
Standing: Second in OUA
First-round opponent: Host 10-10 Ryerson Rams Saturday at 7 p.m. in Bartlett Gym.
Prediction: First-round victory
Men’s volleyball is where I think the Gaels have the most potential for playoff success. They’re Queen’s only defending OUA champions, after all, and they’ve had a strong year—not as amazing as the 20-0 season the McMaster Marauders put up, but still impressive. They showed their true talent last Friday with a crucial straight-set victory over the Guelph Gryphons, where they had to win in less than five sets to take the tie-breaker, clinch second place and gain the first-round bye. That bye turned out to be somewhat fortunate, as sixth-seeded Ryerson knocked the third-seeded Gryphons out in the first round in a five-set thriller.
Queen’s has had some trouble with Ryerson in the past, notably in the five-set battle I attended in Toronto. But two of the Rams’ big advantages—the low roof that made passing difficult for the Gaels, and the dangerous serving of Oleh Kovalchuk, second in service aces in the OUA to only Queen’s setter Devon Miller—will be negated this time around. Queen’s will be hosting the Rams in the spacious confines of Bartlett Gym, which should greatly help their serve-receive game—as an aside, those same surroundings make Miller’s OUA-leading 38 service aces even more impressive, as he doesn’t usually have a low roof to increase the opponents’ passing difficulties. The difference the surroundings make is evident in the two games the teams played this year: Queen’s knocked off the Rams in straight sets at home, but struggled to a 27-25, 25-23, 23-25, 23-25, 15-11 win on Ryerson’s turf.
Also, Gaels’ head coach Brenda Willis told me Kovalchuk didn’t play very much against Guelph due to injury. The stats show he took part in all five games, but he only recorded two kills, four digs and a service ace, which suggests his action was quite limited. Taking his service threat away would certainly help. The Gaels will need to shut down Ryerson’s star outside hitter Greg McDonald, who racked up 20 kills against the Gryphons, and middle hitter Nicholas Beaver, who added 11 kills. Queen’s has talent of their own in spades, though. Stu Hamilton was named the OUA’s top libero yesterday, while outside hitter Joren Zeeman received the Rookie of the Year award. Miller and outside hitter Jeff DeMeza were also both named to the OUA First All-Star Team. The Gaels’ strong passing and setting, combined with their wide variety of attack options, should be enough to see them through setting the stage for an epic OUA final rematch against McMaster.
Women’s volleyball
Record: 7-12
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
Opponent: Away against 17-2 University of Toronto Varsity Blues tonight.
Prediction: First-round loss.
It has been a transition year for this team. To go with the addition of new head coach Joely Christian, the team’s focus shifted to a youth movement, with second-year outside hitter Louise Hamill and rookies Colleen Ogilvie, Elyssa Heller and Lorna Button all starting regularly. This has paid off at times, as in their upset of the 12-7 York Lions. When this team’s on their game, they can compete with anyone. Youth and inconsistency sometimes walk hand in hand, however, and that has also been the case at times this year when the Gaels have dropped matches to teams like 2-17 Windsor. This team’s on the right track, as shown by their sweep of the 4-15 Lakehead Thunderwolvesin Thunder Bay last weekend to clinch the final playoff spot (as another aside, having a Thunder Bay team in the OUA East is even more ridiculous than including a team from Sudbury) but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to beat the top-ranked Varsity Blues, who are first in the OUA and ranked ninth in the country. Upsets do happen, though, and it would be a great story to have Christian knock off her alma mater’s team, as she used to be an assistant coach at Toronto.