The OUA playoffs operate at a weird pace—the men’s volleyball team start their OUA Final series tonight, while the men’s basketball team won’t play their quarter-final match until tomorrow. In light of this, I figured it would be appropriate to offer predictions for the second-round matchups that have already been set in men’s volleyball and women’s hockey, even though the first round isn’t wrapped up in other sports. By the way, this blog’s record so far is 3-1—the smear on my transcript thus far comes from the women’s basketball team’s loss to Carleton Saturday.
Men’s volleyball
Regular-season record: 14-6
Regular-season standing: Second in OUA
Quarter-finals: Bye
Semifinals: Beat 10-10 Ryerson Rams Saturday at home in four sets.
Finals: Face 20-0 McMaster Marauders in a best-of-three series: the first match is tonight at Bartlett Gym; the second clash is in Hamilton Thursday. If a third match is required, it will be Saturday in Hamilton.
History: Beat McMaster in three matches in last year’s OUA finals but lost both regular-season games to them this year.
Prediction: Gaels’ victory in three matches.
This is a tough one to call. McMaster has been amazingly dominant this year, and knocked off Queen’s twice. The games have been close, though—Queen’s lost in five sets in Hamilton before the winter break, and dropped a four-set regular season finale a few weeks ago where Gaels’ head coach Brenda Willis rested several key players, including OUA Rookie of the Year Joren Zeeman and Libero of the Year Stu Hamilton. McMaster certainly has the edge on paper, as no one has been able to stop them yet. Meanwhile, Queen’s only clinched a first-round playoff bye on the last weekend of the season with a straight-set sweep of Guelph. The Gaels barely crept into the final CIS Top 10 Coaches’ Poll in the 10th and final spot—McMaster moved up one notch to second overall.
This hasn’t been a year for undefeated teams, though, and hubris might come back to haunt the Marauders. Despite the Gaels’ sometimes inconsistent performances this year, they’ve shown that when they’re on, they can play with the best—the three-set sweep of Guelph with the crucial second seed on the line being the most recent example. The historical rivalry between the teams certainly sets Queen’s up as potential giant-killers—rarely has a two-time defending conference champion received so little respect in terms of polls and rankings, but my bet’s on the Gaels using that for the necessary motivation to go out there and pull off the win.
Something else that bolsters my belief in the Gaels is comparing how the teams have changed since last year. The Gaels lost a few important figures to graduation, most notably libero Steve Willis, but Hamilton—who held the role for much of the regular season last year due to Willis’ school commitments—has done a tremendous job of improving his own play to fill that gap; his Libero of the Year award shows that position won’t be a loss for Queen’s. Outside hitter Luke Lichty’s also absent from the roster, but in evidence on the bench and one of the team’s most fervent supporters—he was never able to completely recover from a shoulder injury in the off-season, and decided a little while ago to sit out for the remainder of the year. His play’s certainly missed, but his support and experience are still valuable. A similar story applies to Andrew Bridgeman, an important fifth-year player for last year’s Gaels who made the transition to helping out as an assistant coach this year.
The Gaels’ gains more than offset their losses. They brought in six extremely talented rookies this year. Will Bulmer’s missed most of the year with an arm injury, while Dan Rosenbaum sees limited playing time due to the continued excellence of setter Devon Miller and Bryan Fautley is also sparingly used. Zeeman, Niko Rukavina and Michael Amoroso have all made huge contributions to the team, and threaten the veterans for starting jobs on a regular basis: in fact, all three started the Gaels’ semifinal match against Ryerson.
By contrast, McMaster has only one rookie who has made a considerable contribution this year: Josh Lichty, Luke’s younger brother. As I noticed at the Gaels-Marauders clash two weekends ago, he’s certainly a talented player: in fact, Willis said she tried heavily to recruit him, along with most of the other coaches in the country, due to his national junior team experience. He made the OUA All-Rookie Team, but he’s no match for the combination of Zeeman, Rukavina and Amoroso: Zeeman’s Rookie of the Year Award shows the OUA coaches consider him to be the top player of this year’s first-year class.
The Gaels’ other advantage is their bench strength. They have a tremendous variety of players who can bring different approaches to the table. Guys like Zeeman and Jeff De Meza are fantastic power hitters but somewhat weaker on defence, while others like Dan McCrae and Rukavina go more for placement with their hitting and pull off a lot of digs. The veteran leadership from the likes of McCrae, Nick Gralewicz and Chris Vandyk is invaluable, but so is the rookies’ pure energy. They also have a solid serve-and-defend specialist in Pete Galbraith and versatile players like Sam Pedlow who can contribute in a variety of roles. The many different looks, options and offensive strategies the Gaels bring to the table should be enough to push them over the top.
A lot is on the line for these teams: it’s not just the Ontario championship that’s at stake, but also a berth in the national finals next month in Quebec. Laval University claims one of the eight spots as host, and the Quebec and Atlantic champions also receive berths. Due to Western Canadian teams finishing 1-2-3 at last year’s championships, Canada West has four of the remaining spots, leaving just one for the Ontario champions. It’s all up for grabs here: winning this series gives you a shot at national glory; a loss ends your season. I think the Gaels have what it takes to perform when the chips are down—we’ll have to see if events vindicate me.
Women’s hockey
Regular-season record: 12-9-6-0
Regular-season standing: Fourth in OUA East
Quarter-final opponent: Beat 11-11-4-1 York Lions 2-0 at home Saturday.
Semifinal opponent: Face 23-2-2 Laurier Golden Hawks in a best-of-three series: Game 1 is at home Friday at 7:30 p.m., while the second and third games will be on the road.
Prediction: Defeat in three games.
This is an unfortunate matchup for the women’s team: Laurier is undisputedly one of the toughest teams in the country (ranked third in the last CIS Top 10 Coaches Poll), while Queen’s didn’t even crack those rankings all season. Rankings aren’t always everything, and there’s certainly the chance of an upset—magnified because one of the Hawks’ only two losses this year was to the Gaels. I think it’s going to be a close series, but in the end Laurier will be able to pull off the win.
If a Queen’s victory does occur, it will likely be due to the stellar play of goalie Melissa John. John stood on her head Jan. 25 against the Golden Hawks, when she stopped all 41 shots she faced to earn her first shutout of the year, which came with the nice bonus of the OUA and CIS female athlete of the week awards. John’s certainly capable of stealing a game or two, and if the Gaels win the series, she’ll likely be the reason why.
For long-term success, though, which is essential in a three-game series, the Gaels will have to get more shots on the net. They only recorded 14 in that game against Laurier, and only scored one goal proper (the other one was an empty-net goal): that kind of offence leaves no margin for error by your superstar goalie, as Vancouver Canucks’ fans know well. They certainly have plenty of offensively talented players, led by Liz Kench and captain Cassie Sparks—they’ll need more from them if they want to succeed against the Hawks. Queen’s recorded 30 shots against York, which was certainly a step in the right direction: if they continue on that path, they’ll hopefully prove me wrong and knock off the Golden Hawks.
But as I’ve mentioned before, the unfortunate thing with Cinderella stories is they usually don’t turn out to be true. The clock frequently strikes midnight on the underdogs, which is sad to see but a usual fact of life, as the favourites are often just too powerful. Laurier’s a dominant team at both ends of the ice: they’re led offensively by forward Lauren Barch, whose 32 points on the season are eighth-best in Canada and second-best in Ontario. Defensively, they have Liz Knox keeping the pucks out: her astounding 0.98 goals-against average is the best in Ontario, and the second-best in CIS competition behind only McGill’s Charline Labonte. She also boasts a sparkling .944 save percentage and seven shutouts. John is only five slots back on the CIS goals-against average list, but her 1.91 mark is almost double that recorded by Knox. John has been hot lately though, as all three of her shutouts have come since the Gaels’ Jan. 25 win over Laurier. Many underdogs have succeeded in hockey, especially with a goalie on a hot streak: here’s hoping the Gaels can be one of them.
Brief mentions:
Men’s hockey is technically playing a second-round series against the McGill Redmen starting Wednesday: but due to their first-round bye, I lumped them in with the teams in my previous post. It’s unfortunate the Redmen knocked off Carleton, as I thought Queen’s would have been able to handle either the University of Toronto or the University of Ottawa. McGill’s a premier hockey school, though, and head coach Brett Gibson told me earlier this year (after a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Redmen in November) that McGill’s program is what the Gaels are trying to emulate.
“It was just a good old-fashioned butt-kicking,” he said. “When you take nine of 10 points, you start thinking you’re better than you really are. … McGill came in and proved why they’re one of the best programs in the country, and they’re the benchmark where we really need to be.”
Quotes like that certainly don’t inspire dreams of an upset, and that performance was amazing by the standards of the 10-1 thumping the Gaels took in Montreal in January. To their credit, that loss seemed to inspire the team somewhat, and they played better down the stretch. But they couldn’t clinch the second seed on their own after a loss to lowly Ryerson and wound up only claiming the bye thanks to an amazing choke job by the University of Toronto. They’ve certainly got some great players: Ryan Gibb is one of the best goalies in the CIS, and if anyone can steal a series, he can. Captain Jeff Ovens reminds me of a young Trevor Linden, as his heart and intensity have also been matched by his offensive contributions. The team also gets solid performances from the likes of Brady Olsen and Jon Lawrance. In the end, though, I think they’re good enough to keep it close against McGill, and perhaps even good enough to force a third game, but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off.
Prediction: McGill in 3
Also, quick congratulations to the fencing, curling and wrestling teams. Joanne Ko took home a gold medal in épée for the women’s fencing team, which also won a bronze in the team épée event. Coach Hugh Munby was recognized for his work with the team with the OUA women’s coach of the year award as well. On the men’s side, Greg Nonato won a bronze in sabre and led the sabre team to another bronze.
In curling, the women’s team took home an impressive silver medal after a close 8-5 loss to Laurier in the final. It was a great performance by them to get that far. The men’s team lost to Western in the semi-finals.
In wrestling, Eric Bertrand took home a bronze for the Gaels at the OUA championships last Sunday, booking himself a ticket to Calgary for the CIS championships in the process. The men’s team finished seventh overall. Unfortunately Shannon Mullins, who’s one of the country’s best wrestlers, wasn’t able to compete due to injury: she probably would have been able to also earn a national slot.
Last brief mention: the track-and-field team competes in the OUA finals in Windsor this weekend. Track’s a tough sport for detailed predictions, but they should do reasonably well: they’ve been bringing home some great medal hauls this year, particularly in the distance running events where they have stars like Braden Novakowski, Matt Hulse and Leslie Sexton.
