The Buch stops here

It has been an interesting road for Roy Williams. The University of North Carolina Tar Heels’ basketball coach has come full circle. He’s now back at his alma mater, but he’s about to face the program that made him nationally famous, and there’s only a berth in the national championship final on the line Saturday to raise the stakes.

Williams played for the Tar Heels’ junior varsity team during his collegiate career, and graduated from North Carolina in 1972 with an education degree. He went on to become a high school coach and athletic director and then returned to UNC in 1978 as an assistant to coaching legend Dean Smith. He served as an assistant coach for 10 years at UNC and then got his big break when he left in 1988 to take over the University of Kansas Jayhawks from famed head coach Larry Brown, who had just led the team to a national championship. Brown jumped up to coach the NBA’s San Antonio Spurs, leaving Williams with both high expectations and recruiting violations to deal with.

Williams did remarkably well, though, for a man whose first job as a university head coach was taking over a huge program after an unexpected championship. His team went 19-12 in his first year, despite the sanctions handed down by the NCAA for violations committed under Brown’s tenure. The best was yet to come.

In the years to come, Williams’ Jayhawks went on an amazing run. They made every NCAA tournament between 1989 and 2003 and advanced to the Final Four three times. Over that span, Williams’ teams won 418 games and only lost 101 to record an incredible winning percentage of 80.5 per cent. He was named the National Coach of the Year four times.
Unfortunately, Williams’ greatest triumph with Kansas came just before his departure. He took the Jayhawks to the 2003 national championship game, but they lost a 81-78 heartbreaker to the Syracuse Orange. There was speculation a return to North Carolina was imminent, even though he had publicly avowed to stay with Kansas only three years earlier. Kansas did everything they could to accommodate Williams, even firing athletic director Al Bohl, who had publicly clashed with Williams on several occasions. Still, it wasn’t enough, and Williams flew the Jayhawk coop to rejoin the Tar Heels.

Kansas fans were rightly outraged by Williams’ departure, and showed their disapproval in many poignant ways. One of the most memorable was the relocation of the sketch of Williams hanging in the Downtown Barbershop, a local landmark and hair-cutting business which also serves as a shrine for all things Jayhawks. It went from a place of honour on the wall to hanging above the toilet in the newly-rechristened Roy Room.

“We figured if Roy had stuck around, they would have named a building after him,” John Amyx, owner of the Downtown Barbershop, told the Associated Press. “So we decided to name a room after him. That seemed to be the best place to see his picture, too.”

As J. Brady McCullough of the Kansas City Star wrote, the resentment still runs hot in Kansas five years later.

“For some, that’s what makes KU-Carolina a dream scenario,” he wrote. “Beat Williams, North Carolina and those diamond-patterned shorts on the way to a national championship, and it’s even sweeter.”

This should be an epic game. You have Kansas coach Bill Self, who has had great runs in the tournament but is cracking the Final Four for the first time, against Williams, who is third all-time in NCAA winning percentage. You have two great teams, both top-ranked in their regions entering the tournament, set to duel for the right to go to the championship match. Most importantly, though, the Jayhawks’ fans finally have a chance at revenge. They’ve been waiting five long years for this moment but have never come up against Williams in the NCAA tournament. On Saturday night, it’s Williams and his old/new team against the program where he built his reputation. There will be plenty of people rooting for Williams to get another crack at the elusive championship, but very few of them will be from Kansas.

Update: I incorrectly wrote that Williams had never won a national championship. In fact, as Mike pointed out, he won the 2005 national championship with UNC. Apologies for the error.

When the Phoenix Suns landed Shaquille O’Neal at the NBA trade deadline, many thought they had lost their minds. After all, the Suns had made a living running and gunning, draining shots from the outside and playing a fast-paced game. As ESPN.com’s J.A. Adande wrote at the time, it seemed a curious move to add a slow inside big man who most judged to be past his prime, especially when the price was a young, quick player like Shawn Marion.
“The people who think the Suns are better off for this move are in the minority,” he wrote. “The more common reaction was: What were they thinking?”
It has certainly worked out well for Phoenix so far, though. They’ve won seven in a row, and beat the Houston Rockets 122-113 Saturday. The Rockets are no trivial opposition: they’ve been one of the league’s hottest teams lately, and their 22-game winning streak, the second-longest in NBA history, only ended only five days ago. They’ll be dangerous in the playoffs, which makes this Phoenix win even more impressive. News flash: the Suns are hot.
Perhaps most interesting is how Phoenix is now a balanced team. Shaq gives the Suns a viable inside threat at centre, which in turn opens more space for outside shooters like Steve Nash, Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa, and allows Amare Stoudemire—who drained 38 points against the Rockets and hit all 20 of his foul shots—to return to his natural position as a power forward.
Don’t underestimate the contributions of the Diesel himself, though: as The Arizona Republic’s Paul Coro wrote about the Houston game, Shaq came through in the clutch.
“When the game was in danger late in the third quarter, the offense went through O’Neal,” he wrote. “He scored six points on power moves as the Suns took the lead back up to 105-87.”
Shaq put up 23 points and 13 rebounds on the night, making him the only Sun other than Stoudemire to record a double-double.
Shaq’s post presence allows the Suns to battle it out down low and get the tough points. The match against the Rockets wasn’t a one-off, either: ever since the first few games after the trade where they were adjusting to the Shaq effect, the team’s offense has been on fire. Their shooting percentage has soared, likely due to the extra coverage Shaq draws down low: the Suns hit an incredible 76 per cent of their shots from the field in the first half against the Rockets, and made a very good 56.5 per cent of their field goals over the course of the game. It was the sixth straight game they’d shot over 55 per cent from the field, and they’ve averaged an incredible 120.8 points per game in that stretch.
A lot of the credit for the recent offensive explosion should go to Shaq: as Coro pointed out after the Suns’ March 18 win over Portland, he has been their “offensive focal point.” He has also made a big difference on the defensive side of the ball: the Suns have held opponents to making an average of just 42.3 per cent of their shots from the field in the past six games.
Meanwhile, what about Marion, who was thought to be such a vital part of this team? Well, he’s struggling in Miami. As Leo Rautins, the head coach of Canada’s national basketball team and the lead analyst for Toronto Raptors games on TSN and The Score, wrote on his blog the other day, Marion is even bringing other teammates like Dwayne Wade down. “To see Marion and Wade, in a fourth quarter-long conversation on the Heat bench, with towels covering their mouths, and, for all to see, showing little or no interest in the game, is not something that Miami fans should view lightly,” he wrote. “Speaking of Marion, is he feeling wanted now? Toronto kept the high flyer in half-court mode (props to Jamario Moon), and he was hardly noticeable during the game. A little different when Steve Nash isn’t tossing alley-oops and back door passes, isn’t it Shawn?”
Rautins nailed it: Marion, despite his talent, was negatively affecting the chemistry of the Suns. He had demanded a trade as far back as September, wanting to be a star on his own team rather than merely a good member of a supporting cast. Shaq, on the other hand, genuinely wanted to be a part of this Phoenix squad, as he told the Associated Press after the trade.
“I wanted it to happen because I was going to be coming to a fabulous team with a lot of unselfish players, a lot of great players,” he said. He recognized that he wasn’t going to be the only star attraction, and seems to be willing to put that aside to pursue another championship ring.
So far, the trade has been good for Shaq as well: he’s gone from a career-worst year statistically to dominating in the paint, pouring in the points and grabbing every available rebounds. Many speculated that it wouldn’t be possible for an old, broken-down 36-year-old to have this kind of impact. Well, he certainly picked the perfect city to resurrect his career from the ashes. The rest of the league should watch out: Phoenix is rising again.

International Olympic Committee president Jacques Rogge told the Associated Press yesterday he doesn’t want to see a boycott of this summer’s Beijing Olympics despite China’s recent crackdown on Tibetan protestors, which Tibet’s self-proclaimed government-in-exile estimated to have killed at least 80 people thus far. Rogge, who’s on a six-day tour of the Caribbean instead of consulting with the Chinese government, apparently “expressed condolences for the victims and said he hopes calm will be restored immediately,” but declined to comment on the situation beyond a brief statement against boycotts.

Rogge’s probably right to stand against boycotts. The Olympics have been boycotted for all manner of reasons over the years. 28 African nations skipped the 1976 Montreal Olympics because New Zealand was allowed to participate despite their rugby team playing an event in South Africa that reinforced the apartheid regime, 64 countries stayed out of the 1980 Moscow Olympics due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and 14 Eastern Bloc countries refused to travel to Los Angeles for the 1984 Summer Olympics in retaliation. Boycotts aren’t a viable solution, though: all they accomplish is to make the Olympics more political than they already are, and they raise serious questions about whether the medal-winners were truly better than those forced to stay at home by their governments.

Rogge’s lack of comment on the Tibet situation is disturbing, though, and it serves as further evidence that he doesn’t really see China’s atrocious human rights record as a problem. The real issue here is why the Olympics were awarded to China in the first place. Over the years, there have been many Olympics held in countries under problematic regimes with spotty human rights records, such as the 1936 Summer Olympics in Nazi Germany, the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico (preceded by security forces killing hundreds of protesting students), the 1980 Summer Olympics in the USSR and the 1984 Winter Olympics in Yugoslavia. The IOC’s prevailing rhetoric has always been similar to Rogge’s claim to Reuters last August that the Olympics will be “a force for good,” which he’s been repeating frequently since. These changes have rarely materialized, though: in fact, the 1936 Olympics in particular were seen by Hitler’s regime as a great propaganda success. Groups such as the American-Israeli Co-operative Enterprise have even linked the lack of protests during the Berlin Olympics to Hitler’s subsequent increased aggression towards Jews and foreign powers.

“For two weeks in August 1936, Adolf Hitler’s Nazi dictatorship camouflaged its racist, militaristic character while hosting the Summer Olympics,” their website states. “Soft-pedaling its antisemitic agenda and plans for territorial expansion, the regime exploited the Games to bedazzle many foreign spectators and journalists with an image of a peaceful, tolerant Germany. Having rejected a proposed boycott of the 1936 Olympics, the United States and other western democracies missed the opportunity to take a stand that—some observers at the time claimed—might have given Hitler pause and bolstered international resistance to Nazi tyranny. With the conclusion of the Games, Germany’s expansionist policies and the persecution of Jews and other “enemies of the state” accelerated, culminating in World War II and the Holocaust.”

The point is a valuable one. It’s unclear what difference, if any, stronger protests at the Berlin Games would have made, but the Games as they unfolded certainly didn’t hurt Hitler’s cause or reputation. Today, the defining image of those games remains African-American athlete Jesse Owens besting the Aryan supermen, but as heroic as that was, it didn’t seem to make much of an impact at the time. It definitely didn’t change the views of Hitler and the Nazis on racial superiority, and it didn’t even do much for black athletes in the United States: the NFL was segregated until 1945, Major League Baseball remained segregated until 1947, and the NBA didn’t integrate until 1950.

Rogge’s inaction here illustrates the contradiction in his statements. On the one hand, he has said multiple times the Olympics were given to China to be “a force for good,” but on the other hand, he told the Associated Press in February that the IOC “is a sporting, non-political organization and we cannot solve the problems of the world.” He can’t have his cake and eat it too: either the Olympics are political (which they’ve proven to be over the years) and he should back up his words with some lobbying to actually make the Games change things for the better, or they’re purely non-political, in which case China should never have been awarded the Olympics in the first place. It’s hard to rationalize a “non-political” movement acting as a political “force for good”.

On-field performances are great, but it’s the political statements associated with them that really matter: consider the black-gloved salute of American sprinters Tommie Smith and John Carlos after the 200-metre race in Mexico City, which remains one of the defining sporting images of our time and did great things for the Civil Rights Movement in the U.S. Without Smith and Carlos taking that bold stand on the platform provided by their athletic achievements, they would have quickly faded into obscurity as merely talented sprinters. Unfortunately, as Duke University professor Orin Starn lamented in a March 3 opinion piece for the , it seems “the era of the activist athlete is over.” As Starn later wrote on Duke’s website, “It would be nice to see more sports stars try to wield their immense influence in positive ways. Now it’s too often just about winning and getting your face on a Wheaties box.”

We’ll have to see what happens this summer, but it’s certainly not looking promising. These Olympics have already been marred by accusations of the Chinese government harvesting organs from Falun Gong practioners, clamping down on Tibet, evicting many of their own citizens to make way for Olympic construction and funding genocide in Darfur, but Rogge and the IOC are content to spin off platitudes about the Olympics being a force for good without providing the lobbying or political pressure to actually bring about change. China’s desperate to look good on the world stage at these Olympics, and the time is ripe to use the leverage of the Games to bring about some meaningful change. So far, Rogge and company have been unwilling to step up to the plate and call the Chinese government out, though, preferring instead to fiddle around on tours in the Caribbean. Maybe Starn is wrong, and the era of the activist athlete isn’t over. Hollywood director Steven Spielberg has led the way, pulling out of his role as a consultant on the opening ceremonies due to concerns about the government’s involvement in Darfur. It’s now up to the athletes to use the platform the Olympics gives them, as the IOC has spectacularly failed to make use of it thus far. Boycotts aren’t necessary, but taking a stand would be greatly appreciated. As Smith and Carlos showed, sometimes you don’t even need to say anything.

Related: My previous writings on the Olympics.

Playoff prediction wrap-up: I went 7-2, with the only mistakes being a prediction of a first-round win for women’s basketball (they lost to Carleton) and a OUA finals win for men’s volleyball (they lost to McMaster)

One Gaels’ team’s still going that I haven’t predicted the second round for yet, so I figured I’d throw it in for the sake of completeness. By the way, I’ve gone 5-2 so far, with my only misses being the men’s volleyball finals and the women’s basketball quarter-finals. The women’s hockey semifinals are still in progress: they lost last night’s series opener against the Laurier Golden Hawks, so they would have to win both tonight and tomorrow to advance to the OUA finals.

Men’s basketball:
Regular-season record: 14-8
Regular-season standing: Fourth in OUA East
Quarter-finals: Beat 7-15 York Lions 75-57 Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Semifinals: Face 22-0 Carleton Ravens at the Ravens’ Nest in Ottawa tonight at 8 p.m.
Prediction: Second-round loss

The men’s basketball team did a terrific job in their quarter-final matchup, taking down a dangerous York team. Lions’ star Tut Ruach scorched Queen’s for a game-high 25 points, but the Gaels were able to hold the rest of the York offense in check. Fourth-year guard Simon Mitchell and second-year forward Mitch Leger—respectively named to the cishoops.ca first and second OUA East All-Star teams Friday—both had great games. Mitchell scored 18 points with a blistering 46.7 field goal percentage and added three steals, four assists and five rebounds, while Leger put up a team-high 20 points and also grabbed six rebounds. The Gaels also showcased their depth: four players recorded double digits in points, and five players grabbed five rebounds or more.

Unfortunately for the team, though, their fourth-place regular season finish means they face the Carleton Ravens, Canada’s most fearsome basketball dynasty, in the second round. The Ravens are the CIS equivalent of the Los Angeles Lakers or Boston Celtics, except even more dominant—they’ve won the last five national championships and won 87 straight games from 2003 to 2006. They were a perfect 22-0 this year, and have won their last 25 games: logically, they’re also ranked first in the country. Queen’s head coach Rob Smart told the Kingston Whig-Standard Wednesday that the Gaels are an extreme long-shot.

“If we were in Vegas, I’d say we’d be looking at about 1,000 to one,” Smart said.

Smart is undoubtedly exaggerating a bit here, especially given that Carleton only won their regular-season finale against the Ottawa Gee-Gees—a team Queen’s defeated earlier this year—by two points. History is certainly on the Ravens’ side, though: Queen’s has lost its last 18 games against Carleton, and Smart has never won against Ravens’ head coach Dave Smart, his younger brother, in OUA competition.

There are factors that could suggest Queen’s has a chance, though. They’ve done well against Ottawa this season, and the Gee-Gees have come close to beating the Ravens twice, only losing by four and two points. The Gaels have also defended well against Carleton, holding them to 71 and 76 points respectively in their two clashes, well below Carleton’s season average of 81.23. Queen’s is averaging 72.77 points offensively, and has Canada’s fifth-best defense, allowing only 65.41 points per game on average. If their offense clicks and their defense holds, they have a good shot.

Preparation, momentum and rivalry are also in the Gaels’ favour. Rob Smart told me before the team’s first-round match against York that they weren’t even practising strategies to stop the Lions, but were instead preparing for the seemingly inevitable second-round date with Carleton. At the time, I thought it was overconfidence that might come back to bite them against a good York team. It has worked so far, though, so the extra focus on tactics to stop the Ravens might come in handy. The Gaels also have momentum on their side after a dominating performance against the Lions, while Carleton sat idle due to their first-round bye. Frequently, long layoffs between matches come back to haunt teams: consider the Ottawa Senators in last year’s Stanley Cup Finals, where they came out flat after a nine-day break between rounds, promptly lost the first two games and never recovered. Finally, rivalry should be a huge advantage for Queen’s. For Carleton, this is just another game: for the Gaels, it’s a chance to avenge a decade of humiliation. You can also bet that Rob Smart wants to finally get a win against his family: in addition to facing Dave, his son, Rob Smart Jr. is an assistant coach with the Ravens.

Despite all this, the Ravens still have to be favoured to win this one. They are the most dominant team in Canadian basketball, and it’s very tough to bet against them. Queen’s has a lot of factors going for them that could lead to a potential upset, and should at least keep this one close, but in the end Carleton’s experience may prove decisive: they have a roster full of veterans, while the Gaels are stocked with primarily first- and second-year players. The Ravens’ dominance will surely end someday, and there are reasons to think this may very well be the day, but they aren’t compelling enough to convince me that a historic upset will definitely occur. The Gaels have as good a shot as anyone in Ontario at knocking Carleton off this season, but at the end of the day, the Ravens still look likely to soar.

The OUA playoffs operate at a weird pace—the men’s volleyball team start their OUA Final series tonight, while the men’s basketball team won’t play their quarter-final match until tomorrow. In light of this, I figured it would be appropriate to offer predictions for the second-round matchups that have already been set in men’s volleyball and women’s hockey, even though the first round isn’t wrapped up in other sports. By the way, this blog’s record so far is 3-1—the smear on my transcript thus far comes from the women’s basketball team’s loss to Carleton Saturday.

Men’s volleyball

Regular-season record: 14-6
Regular-season standing: Second in OUA
Quarter-finals: Bye
Semifinals: Beat 10-10 Ryerson Rams Saturday at home in four sets.
Finals: Face 20-0 McMaster Marauders in a best-of-three series: the first match is tonight at Bartlett Gym; the second clash is in Hamilton Thursday. If a third match is required, it will be Saturday in Hamilton.
History: Beat McMaster in three matches in last year’s OUA finals but lost both regular-season games to them this year.
Prediction: Gaels’ victory in three matches.

This is a tough one to call. McMaster has been amazingly dominant this year, and knocked off Queen’s twice. The games have been close, though—Queen’s lost in five sets in Hamilton before the winter break, and dropped a four-set regular season finale a few weeks ago where Gaels’ head coach Brenda Willis rested several key players, including OUA Rookie of the Year Joren Zeeman and Libero of the Year Stu Hamilton. McMaster certainly has the edge on paper, as no one has been able to stop them yet. Meanwhile, Queen’s only clinched a first-round playoff bye on the last weekend of the season with a straight-set sweep of Guelph. The Gaels barely crept into the final CIS Top 10 Coaches’ Poll in the 10th and final spot—McMaster moved up one notch to second overall.

This hasn’t been a year for undefeated teams, though, and hubris might come back to haunt the Marauders. Despite the Gaels’ sometimes inconsistent performances this year, they’ve shown that when they’re on, they can play with the best—the three-set sweep of Guelph with the crucial second seed on the line being the most recent example. The historical rivalry between the teams certainly sets Queen’s up as potential giant-killers—rarely has a two-time defending conference champion received so little respect in terms of polls and rankings, but my bet’s on the Gaels using that for the necessary motivation to go out there and pull off the win.

Something else that bolsters my belief in the Gaels is comparing how the teams have changed since last year. The Gaels lost a few important figures to graduation, most notably libero Steve Willis, but Hamilton—who held the role for much of the regular season last year due to Willis’ school commitments—has done a tremendous job of improving his own play to fill that gap; his Libero of the Year award shows that position won’t be a loss for Queen’s. Outside hitter Luke Lichty’s also absent from the roster, but in evidence on the bench and one of the team’s most fervent supporters—he was never able to completely recover from a shoulder injury in the off-season, and decided a little while ago to sit out for the remainder of the year. His play’s certainly missed, but his support and experience are still valuable. A similar story applies to Andrew Bridgeman, an important fifth-year player for last year’s Gaels who made the transition to helping out as an assistant coach this year.

The Gaels’ gains more than offset their losses. They brought in six extremely talented rookies this year. Will Bulmer’s missed most of the year with an arm injury, while Dan Rosenbaum sees limited playing time due to the continued excellence of setter Devon Miller and Bryan Fautley is also sparingly used. Zeeman, Niko Rukavina and Michael Amoroso have all made huge contributions to the team, and threaten the veterans for starting jobs on a regular basis: in fact, all three started the Gaels’ semifinal match against Ryerson.

By contrast, McMaster has only one rookie who has made a considerable contribution this year: Josh Lichty, Luke’s younger brother. As I noticed at the Gaels-Marauders clash two weekends ago, he’s certainly a talented player: in fact, Willis said she tried heavily to recruit him, along with most of the other coaches in the country, due to his national junior team experience. He made the OUA All-Rookie Team, but he’s no match for the combination of Zeeman, Rukavina and Amoroso: Zeeman’s Rookie of the Year Award shows the OUA coaches consider him to be the top player of this year’s first-year class.

The Gaels’ other advantage is their bench strength. They have a tremendous variety of players who can bring different approaches to the table. Guys like Zeeman and Jeff De Meza are fantastic power hitters but somewhat weaker on defence, while others like Dan McCrae and Rukavina go more for placement with their hitting and pull off a lot of digs. The veteran leadership from the likes of McCrae, Nick Gralewicz and Chris Vandyk is invaluable, but so is the rookies’ pure energy. They also have a solid serve-and-defend specialist in Pete Galbraith and versatile players like Sam Pedlow who can contribute in a variety of roles. The many different looks, options and offensive strategies the Gaels bring to the table should be enough to push them over the top.

A lot is on the line for these teams: it’s not just the Ontario championship that’s at stake, but also a berth in the national finals next month in Quebec. Laval University claims one of the eight spots as host, and the Quebec and Atlantic champions also receive berths. Due to Western Canadian teams finishing 1-2-3 at last year’s championships, Canada West has four of the remaining spots, leaving just one for the Ontario champions. It’s all up for grabs here: winning this series gives you a shot at national glory; a loss ends your season. I think the Gaels have what it takes to perform when the chips are down—we’ll have to see if events vindicate me.

Women’s hockey

Regular-season record: 12-9-6-0
Regular-season standing: Fourth in OUA East
Quarter-final opponent: Beat 11-11-4-1 York Lions 2-0 at home Saturday.
Semifinal opponent: Face 23-2-2 Laurier Golden Hawks in a best-of-three series: Game 1 is at home Friday at 7:30 p.m., while the second and third games will be on the road.
Prediction: Defeat in three games.

This is an unfortunate matchup for the women’s team: Laurier is undisputedly one of the toughest teams in the country (ranked third in the last CIS Top 10 Coaches Poll), while Queen’s didn’t even crack those rankings all season. Rankings aren’t always everything, and there’s certainly the chance of an upset—magnified because one of the Hawks’ only two losses this year was to the Gaels. I think it’s going to be a close series, but in the end Laurier will be able to pull off the win.

If a Queen’s victory does occur, it will likely be due to the stellar play of goalie Melissa John. John stood on her head Jan. 25 against the Golden Hawks, when she stopped all 41 shots she faced to earn her first shutout of the year, which came with the nice bonus of the OUA and CIS female athlete of the week awards. John’s certainly capable of stealing a game or two, and if the Gaels win the series, she’ll likely be the reason why.

For long-term success, though, which is essential in a three-game series, the Gaels will have to get more shots on the net. They only recorded 14 in that game against Laurier, and only scored one goal proper (the other one was an empty-net goal): that kind of offence leaves no margin for error by your superstar goalie, as Vancouver Canucks’ fans know well. They certainly have plenty of offensively talented players, led by Liz Kench and captain Cassie Sparks—they’ll need more from them if they want to succeed against the Hawks. Queen’s recorded 30 shots against York, which was certainly a step in the right direction: if they continue on that path, they’ll hopefully prove me wrong and knock off the Golden Hawks.

But as I’ve mentioned before, the unfortunate thing with Cinderella stories is they usually don’t turn out to be true. The clock frequently strikes midnight on the underdogs, which is sad to see but a usual fact of life, as the favourites are often just too powerful. Laurier’s a dominant team at both ends of the ice: they’re led offensively by forward Lauren Barch, whose 32 points on the season are eighth-best in Canada and second-best in Ontario. Defensively, they have Liz Knox keeping the pucks out: her astounding 0.98 goals-against average is the best in Ontario, and the second-best in CIS competition behind only McGill’s Charline Labonte. She also boasts a sparkling .944 save percentage and seven shutouts. John is only five slots back on the CIS goals-against average list, but her 1.91 mark is almost double that recorded by Knox. John has been hot lately though, as all three of her shutouts have come since the Gaels’ Jan. 25 win over Laurier. Many underdogs have succeeded in hockey, especially with a goalie on a hot streak: here’s hoping the Gaels can be one of them.

Brief mentions:

Men’s hockey is technically playing a second-round series against the McGill Redmen starting Wednesday: but due to their first-round bye, I lumped them in with the teams in my previous post. It’s unfortunate the Redmen knocked off Carleton, as I thought Queen’s would have been able to handle either the University of Toronto or the University of Ottawa. McGill’s a premier hockey school, though, and head coach Brett Gibson told me earlier this year (after a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Redmen in November) that McGill’s program is what the Gaels are trying to emulate.

“It was just a good old-fashioned butt-kicking,” he said. “When you take nine of 10 points, you start thinking you’re better than you really are. … McGill came in and proved why they’re one of the best programs in the country, and they’re the benchmark where we really need to be.”

Quotes like that certainly don’t inspire dreams of an upset, and that performance was amazing by the standards of the 10-1 thumping the Gaels took in Montreal in January. To their credit, that loss seemed to inspire the team somewhat, and they played better down the stretch. But they couldn’t clinch the second seed on their own after a loss to lowly Ryerson and wound up only claiming the bye thanks to an amazing choke job by the University of Toronto. They’ve certainly got some great players: Ryan Gibb is one of the best goalies in the CIS, and if anyone can steal a series, he can. Captain Jeff Ovens reminds me of a young Trevor Linden, as his heart and intensity have also been matched by his offensive contributions. The team also gets solid performances from the likes of Brady Olsen and Jon Lawrance. In the end, though, I think they’re good enough to keep it close against McGill, and perhaps even good enough to force a third game, but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off.

Prediction: McGill in 3

Also, quick congratulations to the fencing, curling and wrestling teams. Joanne Ko took home a gold medal in épée for the women’s fencing team, which also won a bronze in the team épée event. Coach Hugh Munby was recognized for his work with the team with the OUA women’s coach of the year award as well. On the men’s side, Greg Nonato won a bronze in sabre and led the sabre team to another bronze.

In curling, the women’s team took home an impressive silver medal after a close 8-5 loss to Laurier in the final. It was a great performance by them to get that far. The men’s team lost to Western in the semi-finals.

In wrestling, Eric Bertrand took home a bronze for the Gaels at the OUA championships last Sunday, booking himself a ticket to Calgary for the CIS championships in the process. The men’s team finished seventh overall. Unfortunately Shannon Mullins, who’s one of the country’s best wrestlers, wasn’t able to compete due to injury: she probably would have been able to also earn a national slot.

Last brief mention: the track-and-field team competes in the OUA finals in Windsor this weekend. Track’s a tough sport for detailed predictions, but they should do reasonably well: they’ve been bringing home some great medal hauls this year, particularly in the distance running events where they have stars like Braden Novakowski, Matt Hulse and Leslie Sexton.

The start of Reading Week is also the most important time for the Gaels’ winter sporting teams as they gear up for the postseason. Here are my predictions on how the basketball, volleyball and hockey teams will do in the first round.

Men’s basketball

Record: 14-8
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host either 7-14 Ryerson Rams or 6-15 York Lions Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Prediction: First-round victory

The basketball team will face a different set of challenges depending on if they play York or Ryerson. Ryerson closes the season this weekend with a tough game against the 16-5 University of Toronto Varsity Blues, while York has an easier match, hosting the 4-17 Laurentian Voyageurs (by the way, if anyone has a good reason to place a team from Sudbury in the OUA East, please let me know!). The 16-5 University of Ottawa Gee-Gees also play the 21-0 Carleton Ravens on the weekend, so the second seed is still to be determined between them and Toronto. Toronto and York hold the tie-breaker advantage in case of equal records.

Queen’s swept both York and Ryerson during the regular season, beating the Lions 78-56 and 74-67 while besting the Rams 79-74 and 77-69. Both teams pose considerable danger to the Gaels. Ryerson’s main threat is the Bakovic brothers— Boris, who leads the OUA with 23.81 points per game and 500 points overall and is second in rebounds per game with 8.52, and Igor, who leads the league with 10 rebounds per game—a formidable combination. York, on the other hand, relies on a single star, point guard Tut Ruach, who’s fourth in the league with 18.81 points per game. Both teams’ key players have the ability to dominate games—in the Feb. 9 York-Ryerson match, the Bakovics combined for 45 points and 25 rebounds en route to a 89-81 Rams victory, while Ruach chipped in 30-plus points for the Lions in the second straight game in a row (he wound up with 31 on the night).

The previous evening, Ruach had one of the most outstanding second half performances I’ve ever heard of, scoring 31 of his 32 points after the halftime break to lead the Lions to a shocking upset of the highly ranked Varsity Blues. Respected basketball authority Mark Wacyk of cishoops.ca described Ruach’s play in the second half as “absolutely unstoppable … probably the most electrifying performance in one half by one player all season long.” Regardless which team the Gaels face, it’s clear that shutting down their stars will be the key to victory: defensive specialists like Tim Boyle and Nick DiDonato will have to be at the top of their game.

One thing that’s a little concerning is head coach Rob Smart’s comments to me on the playoff matchup after Wednesday’s 75-53 trouncing of the Royal Military College Paladins. Smart said he isn’t even targeting their first-round opposition, and is instead looking ahead to the looming possibility of a second-round date with Carleton (which could only be avoided if the sixth-seeded team upsets the third-seed of either Toronto or the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees in the first round). “If we can beat Carleton in the second round, if we’re good enough to beat Carleton, we’re probably good enough to win the first round,” he said. While it was refreshing to hear something other than the standard “We have to take it one game at a time,” cliché, both York and Ryerson have shown that they have what it takes to play with the big teams, especially with York’s recent upset of Toronto.
That upset also shows it’s not out of the question that the sixth-seeded team could take down whichever of Toronto or Ottawa winds up in the third slot, leaving the Gaels to play the second-seeded team in the second round instead of Carleton. I’m not advocating that the Gaels ignore the possibility of a Carleton matchup, as it remains a pretty likely scenario: it just seems dangerously overconfident to underestimate either the Rams or the Lions, both of which have the players to potentially pull off an upset. Nevertheless, in the end I think Queen’s depth will be enough to see them through the first round. They have a star forward in Mitch Leger who can go almost point-for-point with Ruach or Bakovic, but their real advantage is their other scoring threats like the Mitchell brothers and Jon Ogden. If Queen’s defensive specialists can limit the damage caused by the stars of York or Ryerson, they should be able to take this one.

Women’s basketball:

Record: 9-13
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host 8-14 Carleton Ravens Saturday at 2 p.m. in Bartlett Gym.
Prediction: First-round victory

It has been a bit of an off-year for the women’s basketball team, and certainly a reversal from last year’s 13-9 regular-season record. Last season, they earned a first-round bye, beat Laurentian in the semifinals and then fell to York in the eastern final. Their performance certainly hasn’t been helped by the absence of Jess Selinger—one of last year’s standouts—due to injury, but this isn’t a particularly young team. Most of last year’s players, with the notable exception of Claire Meadows, have returned, and they run a veteran-heavy lineup most of the time.

In my mind, the Gaels have played somewhat inconsistently for much of the year—they beat 15-7 Laurentian but lost to 3-19 Ottawa—which has led to their current place in the standings. They split their games against the Ravens this year, pulling off an amazing fourth-quarter comeback to win 69-64 at home, but falling 61-50 on the road last weekend. If this team plays the way they’re capable of, they’re more than talented enough to beat the Ravens, and I think they’ll take their game to a new level when the chips are down. There’s always a chance the Hyde version of the Gaels will show up and suffer a first-round defeat, but I’m predicting they have a Jekyll moment and pull off the win.

Men’s hockey:

Record: 13-12-3
Standing: First in OUA Mid-East Division
First-round opponent: Host 18-9-1 McGill Redmen, 14-12-2 University of Ottawa Gee-Gees or 13-13-2 University of Toronto Varsity Blues in a best-of-three series starting Wednesday, Feb. 20.
Prediction: First-round loss if they face McGill, first-round win over Ottawa or Toronto

This one’s still very much up in the air. Thanks to Toronto’s abysmal choke-job down the stretch, the Gaels won the division and earned a first-round bye, which could be very important: in my mind, it’s probably an advantage to be fresh against a team that’s just come out of a grueling 3-game first-round series. As the NHL has shown, though, long layoffs aren’t always helpful. Queen’s won’t have played for two weeks by the time their playoffs get going, which could come back to haunt them.

The matchup will probably play the key part in this one. McGill had their way with the Gaels this year, beating them 6-2 in Kingston before demolishing them 10-1 in Montreal. You never know what will happen, but McGill has played far better than Queen’s this year in a tougher division, as their record shows. In fact, if it wasn’t for each division winner getting one of the top two slots, the Redmen would have a higher seeding than the Gaels. It’s possible Queen’s can turn it up in the playoffs against their ancient rivals, but I don’t see it as terribly likely.

I foresee less problems with Toronto or Ottawa, though. The Gaels were 0 for 2 against the Blues this year, but Toronto had a tough time down the stretch, losing four out of their last five (two in overtime). The division title was theirs for the taking, and they threw it away: that could come back to bite them after a grueling first-round series with Ottawa. Queen’s split their series with the Gee-Gees this year, winning 2-0 in Ottawa but losing 4-3 in a shootout at the Memorial Centre. Either team will give the Gaels a tight series, but I think if Queen’s gets solid goaltending from Ryan Gibb and a bit of offence from the likes of Brady Olsen, Jeff Ovens, Jon Asselstine and Jon Lawrance, they should be able to beat either opponent.

A quick word on how the seeding breaks down: McGill (seeded third in the OUA East) is in a three-game series with sixth-seeded Carleton, and they won their opener 5-1. They could clinch the series with a win tonight, which would lock them in to a second-round date with Queen’s. The highest remaining seed from the first round faces the Gaels, while the other victor takes on the 22-5-1 Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Patriotes. If Carleton rebounds to beat McGill, they face the Patriotes and the winner of the Toronto-Ottawa matchup (fourth-seeded Ottawa won the opener 3-2 in overtime) takes on Queen’s.

Women’s hockey

Record: 12-9-6-0
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
First-round opponent: Host 11-11-4-1 York Lions Saturday at 8:30 p.m. at the Memorial Centre.
Prediction: First-round victory

Women’s hockey is another sport where Queen’s has slipped this year, if the regular season is any indication—they don’t look like an OUA silver medalist at the moment. Part of that is likely due to the transition to new head coach Rob Lalonde, which is always difficult. The Gaels have been hot lately, winning nine of their last 10 games, and have two goalies playing at the top of their game—Katie Boyd, named the OUA’s female athlete of the week for January 3-6, and Melissa John, who earned the same honour and also received the nod as the CIS female athlete of the week for Jan. 21-27. It looks like the Gaels are starting to click at the right time, so they should be able to take this one, especially given that they’re 3-0 against the Lions this year. Time and time again, though, underdogs have shown the veracity of a slightly modified quote from English writer Leslie Poles Hartley: “The playoffs are a foreign country: they do things differently there.”

Men’s volleyball

Record: 14-6
Standing: Second in OUA
First-round opponent: Host 10-10 Ryerson Rams Saturday at 7 p.m. in Bartlett Gym.
Prediction: First-round victory

Men’s volleyball is where I think the Gaels have the most potential for playoff success. They’re Queen’s only defending OUA champions, after all, and they’ve had a strong year—not as amazing as the 20-0 season the McMaster Marauders put up, but still impressive. They showed their true talent last Friday with a crucial straight-set victory over the Guelph Gryphons, where they had to win in less than five sets to take the tie-breaker, clinch second place and gain the first-round bye. That bye turned out to be somewhat fortunate, as sixth-seeded Ryerson knocked the third-seeded Gryphons out in the first round in a five-set thriller.

Queen’s has had some trouble with Ryerson in the past, notably in the five-set battle I attended in Toronto. But two of the Rams’ big advantages—the low roof that made passing difficult for the Gaels, and the dangerous serving of Oleh Kovalchuk, second in service aces in the OUA to only Queen’s setter Devon Miller—will be negated this time around. Queen’s will be hosting the Rams in the spacious confines of Bartlett Gym, which should greatly help their serve-receive game—as an aside, those same surroundings make Miller’s OUA-leading 38 service aces even more impressive, as he doesn’t usually have a low roof to increase the opponents’ passing difficulties. The difference the surroundings make is evident in the two games the teams played this year: Queen’s knocked off the Rams in straight sets at home, but struggled to a 27-25, 25-23, 23-25, 23-25, 15-11 win on Ryerson’s turf.

Also, Gaels’ head coach Brenda Willis told me Kovalchuk didn’t play very much against Guelph due to injury. The stats show he took part in all five games, but he only recorded two kills, four digs and a service ace, which suggests his action was quite limited. Taking his service threat away would certainly help. The Gaels will need to shut down Ryerson’s star outside hitter Greg McDonald, who racked up 20 kills against the Gryphons, and middle hitter Nicholas Beaver, who added 11 kills. Queen’s has talent of their own in spades, though. Stu Hamilton was named the OUA’s top libero yesterday, while outside hitter Joren Zeeman received the Rookie of the Year award. Miller and outside hitter Jeff DeMeza were also both named to the OUA First All-Star Team. The Gaels’ strong passing and setting, combined with their wide variety of attack options, should be enough to see them through setting the stage for an epic OUA final rematch against McMaster.

Women’s volleyball

Record: 7-12
Standing: Fourth in OUA East
Opponent: Away against 17-2 University of Toronto Varsity Blues tonight.
Prediction: First-round loss.

It has been a transition year for this team. To go with the addition of new head coach Joely Christian, the team’s focus shifted to a youth movement, with second-year outside hitter Louise Hamill and rookies Colleen Ogilvie, Elyssa Heller and Lorna Button all starting regularly. This has paid off at times, as in their upset of the 12-7 York Lions. When this team’s on their game, they can compete with anyone. Youth and inconsistency sometimes walk hand in hand, however, and that has also been the case at times this year when the Gaels have dropped matches to teams like 2-17 Windsor. This team’s on the right track, as shown by their sweep of the 4-15 Lakehead Thunderwolvesin Thunder Bay last weekend to clinch the final playoff spot (as another aside, having a Thunder Bay team in the OUA East is even more ridiculous than including a team from Sudbury) but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to beat the top-ranked Varsity Blues, who are first in the OUA and ranked ninth in the country. Upsets do happen, though, and it would be a great story to have Christian knock off her alma mater’s team, as she used to be an assistant coach at Toronto.