Latest posts (RSS 2.0)I should have posted these before today, but take-home exam deadlines being what they are…
These predictions were made before yesterday’s games. For any doubters, I have the facebook documentation to prove it. Last year I went 7-for-8 in the first round and got only three series wrong the whole playoffs, so I’m looking to improve on that. With the parity in the league these days, playoff picks are really just a crapshoot anyway, as Bob McKenzie wrote the other day on TSN.ca.
“The whole concept of predictions is actually laughable. Like they mean anything. Seriously, who pays attention to this %#@*.” he wrote.
Nonetheless, here mine are.
Eastern Conference
1) Montreal Canadiens vs. 8) Boston Bruins
With a grand total of 0 games of playoff experience between starting goalies Carey Price and Tim Thomas, neither team really has an edge there. This series comes down to whether Boston can frustrate and slow down Montreal’s quick forwards enough to throw them off their game. Montreal won all eight games against the Bruins this season, so they’re coming in with a ton of confidence. The Bruins, who most experts had as low as last in the Eastern Conference in their pre-season picks, got to the playoffs through hard-nosed, trap-style defensive play, and they have to force Montreal to play that game if they are to have any hope. They’ll also have to stay out of the box. Montreal’s power play carried them through much of the season. The playoffs typically have fewer penalties, that makes each one of them all the more significant. Ultimately, Boston will give Montreal a run for their money, but Carey Price will continue to be unflappable in goal and Montreal’s balanced offence will win out in the end.
Prediction: Montreal in 6 games
2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 7) Ottawa Senators
What a difference a year makes. Last year the Pens were an inexperienced, frightened-looking bunch and the Sens were primed for a long playoff run. Now the Senators have experienced a regular-season fall from grace after starting with a 15-2 record, and the Pens rose nearly to the top with a group of forwards that James Duthie aptly called “the Superfriends.” With the Sens sans Alfredsson, Fisher and Kelly and the Penguins completely healthy, all signs seem to point to a Penguins romp. This has placed all the pressure on the Pens, who everyone is expecting to have a long playoff run, while Ottawa, a bunch of wounded animals, happily play the role of the underdog. Although my bias is creeping in a bit here, I think the Sens still have the offensive ability to be an explosive team, and if Martin Gerber plays anything like he did at the beginning of the year he could have Malkin, Crosby and co. questioning themselves. The Sens still have quite a deep team, and Pittsburgh’s bottom-three defence of Scuderi, Gill and Letang is bound to give some of their fans nightmares. If the Sens can take one of two in Pittsburgh and win both their home games, the Pens are in trouble. It’s also worth noting the Pens are the dreaded number 2 seed, which historically has been upset almost 40% of the time.
Prediction: Ottawa in 6 games
3) Washington Capitals vs. 6) Philadelphia Flyers
The Capitals exposed the most brutal flaw in any professional sports league’s standings rules by going from out of the playoffs to third place in the span of one game. Nonetheless, they’re an incredibly exciting team to watch, and after collecting 22 of a possible 24 points down the stretch they’re the league’s hottest team too. The key to beating Washington is no secret: shut down likely Hart Trophy winner Alexander Ovechkin. The problem for the Flyers is that Ovechkin is not a typical scoring forward that can be shut down by shoving him around a little bit and physically intimidating him. Not only did Ovechkin lead the league in goals and points this season, he was ninth in hits. He has no problem going around or through opposing players as long as it gets him a goal. His teammates have rallied around this mentality and with playoff-tested Cristobal Huet in goal, veteran Sergei Fedorov leading the way and Matt Cooke grinding it out with the best of them, the Caps should take this one. The Flyers have Martin Biron in net who has had problems with Ovechkin this season (which NHL goalie hasn’t), and their forwards have shown streaky sides this season.
Prediction: Washington in 7 games
4) New Jersey Devils vs. 5) New York Rangers
In a battle of arguably the two best goalies in the league in Martin Brodeur and Henrik Lundqvist, the Rangers have all the ingredients to overcome the defensive-minded Devils fairly easily (and go even further in the playoffs - more on that later). The Rangers have been pulling it together over the past couple of months, and Lundqvist’s stellar play has helped them elevate to the level of the NHL’s elite. They dominated the Devils during the season series, going 7-0-1. Even though Jaromir Jagr hasn’t scored as much as he used to, others like Shanahan, Straka, Drury and Gomez have picked up the slack (Gomez, especially, had a great year after a slow start). The Devils won’t be able to stop the Rangers’ balanced attack, and don’t have enough firepower of their own beyond Zach Parise, Brian Gionta and Patrik Elias to respond. Ranger super-pest Sean Avery, as much as I hate to admit it, is a valuable asset in the playoffs, and has a history of getting on Brodeur’s nerves (and everyone else’s).
Prediction: NY Rangers in 6 games
Western Conference
1) Detroit Red Wings vs. 8) Nashville Predators
Nashville is the Boston of the West: a team no one picked to make the playoffs due to losing several key players. But the impressive play of Jason Arnott, the emergence of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter as top-flight NHL defencemen and solid goaltending from Chris Mason and Dan Ellis has them on the inside looking out at Vancouver, who tanked at the end of the season. For all of Nashville’s accomplishments, the President’s Trophy-winning Red Wings will be too much for them. It seems the same every year, but the Wings’ top line of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Tomas Holmstrom might be the best in the league. Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski are two of the top blueliners in the game and both of their goalies, Hasek and Osgood, had great years. Nashville’s a good team and will give the Wings a hard time physically, but Detroit is skilled enough to overcome that.
Prediction: Detroit in 5 games
2) San Jose Sharks vs. 7) Calgary Flames
This one took a lot of mulling. For one, the Sharks are among the hottest teams in the league since their acquisition of defenceman Bryan Campbell from Buffalo. On the other hand, the Flames were 3-0-1 against the Sharks this season and did a great job shutting down Joe Thornton (he had one assist in the four games). The Flames led the league in fighting majors and their mandate is clear: hard-nosed, physical hockey that will keep San Jose on their heels. The Sharks, who have had a rough playoff past and are the fashionable Cup pick for many people this year, will look to get Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau going at the same time - something that hasn’t happened in the playoffs before. Campbell’s presence changes everything. His puck-moving skills make the Sharks a much better transition team, and their power play is now much improved. For those reasons, the Sharks should be able to withstand the Flames’ onslaught to win the series. But it won’t be easy.
Prediction: San Jose in 6 games
3) Minnesota Wild vs. 6) Colorado Avalanche
In my opinion, this is the toughest series to call. These two teams are so close in almost every aspect. The Wild play their defensive system to a tee, and have some of the most underrated forwards in the game (Koivu, Bouchard, Rolston). Colorado, who have loaded up with veteran talent since last year at this time, has an inordinate number of offensive weapons even with Marek Svatos unavailable (Sakic, Hejduk, Forsberg, Smyth, Stastny, Wolski, etc.). The goalies are also incredibly even. Nicklas Backstrom has proven himself as a number-one goalie, and Jose Theodore has emerged from the depths of the backup position to be a reliable starter. This series could be decided by a goal, and picking a winner is extremely tough. But in the playoffs, it never hurts to go with experience.
Prediction: Colorado in 7 games
4) Anaheim Ducks vs. 5) Dallas Stars
This will probably be the most physical of all the first-round series. The Ducks have arguably improved since their Cup run last season, getting even bigger and more experienced than they were last year (adding Bertuzzi, Schneider and Weight). Dallas had a surprisingly good year, but marquee trade deadline acquisition Brad Richards hasn’t done much since arriving and scoring five points in his first game as a Star. This should be incredibly close, and it’s almost a shame one of these teams will have to be eliminated right off the bat. The Ducks should take it though. I’m not sure if they have an answer to Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, while the Ducks have the best defence in the league and should be able to shut down the likes of Brenden Morrow and Richards.
Prediction: Anaheim in 7 games
And now, a Cup prediction. The closest thing I had to a preseason prediction of who would win the Cup was in a conversation on a trampoline with a good friend from back home, when we discussed the merits of the many offseason acquisitions of NHL teams. At that time, he predicted Buffalo and San Jose would be in the final (Buffalo didn’t make the playoffs this year). I went with the Rangers beating Colorado in the Final. In the interest of consistency and because it would be a mighty impressive call if I’m right, I’ll stick with that.
New York Rangers over the Colorado Avalanche in 7 games in the Cup Final.
