COP30 isn’t just another far-off international summit—it’s where the direction of our collective futures is being decided.
The consequences of the climate crisis are already shaping the environment and economy that Queen’s students will graduate into. From Nov. 10 to 21, nearly 200 countries will meet in Belém, Brazil, for the Conference of the Parties (COP30), the United Nations Climate summit, to negotiate the global response to climate change.
This year’s climate headlines aren’t about what might happen in some distant, warmer future; they’re about what’s happening now. For instance, Canada recently endured its second-worst wildfire season on record, with 2023 holding the top spot. In Ontario, more than 640 fires burned almost 600,000 hectares, nearly triple the ten-year average. The smoke smothering Southern Ontario this summer made the air we breathe a serious health risk. A once distant threat is now a common feature of Ontario summers.
Further south, in late October, Hurricane Melissa slammed into Jamaica as a Category 5 storm. It brought 295 km/h winds and devastating flooding. Climate scientists say this storm probably wouldn’t have happened if it weren’t for climate change. Six million people across Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba have had their lives disrupted. The destruction includes homes and buildings razed, massive blackouts, and food and water shortages.
Worldwide, the climate change-induced disasters this year are too many to name. Among them were the deadly heatwaves in Spain and China, and extreme flooding in Pakistan and Texas. These increasingly common extreme events are symptoms of a single, destabilized global climate system.
While it’s easy to be cynical about these summits, given the thousands of kilometres separating them from the realities of climate change, the absence of legally binding commitments, and their often-slow progress, COPs still matter. They’re where global expectations are set, and national ambitions are declared. Even without legal force, they shape the tone of everything from national energy policy to the flow of billions of dollars in climate finance. For example, commitments made at COPs have led Canada to adopt the Canada Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act and the commitment of billions of dollars of climate finance for developing countries.
This year’s summit isn’t just another meeting—it’s a potential turning point.
COP30 is the halfway point to 2030, the year the initial pledges of the Paris Agreement are supposed to be met. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, is a global treaty in which most countries of the world committed to limiting warming to below 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C, through nationally defined targets (known as Nationally Defined Contributions, or NDCs).
This year is also the deadline for countries to submit their updated NDCs. In February, Canada released its new NDC target to reduce emissions to 45-50 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035. However, this target isn’t compatible with keeping warming below 1.5°°C.
I was an undergrad in Environmental Science when the Paris Agreement was being negotiated. It seemed like all we talked about in my classes that year. I remember the nervousness when the negotiations went into overtime, and the cautious optimism when the agreement was announced. It wasn’t perfect, as some climate scientists quickly pointed out that the individual country pledges wouldn’t be enough to keep warming to below 2°C. But it felt like a miracle that we had any agreement at all.
A decade later, that optimism feels tempered. The United Nations’ 2024 Emissions Gap Report warns that without drastic action, we are on track for a 2.6°C to 3.1°C temperature rise this century. An independent analysis projects a warming of roughly 2.7°C based on current policies. These abstract numbers are brought to life every time a new extreme weather event reports a loss of human life.
The political context also feels far more tense today than it did in 2015.
For example, the United States withdrew from the Paris agreement for the second time in January. The country also withdrew billions of dollars in promised funds to help countries like Indonesia and South Africa move from coal to clean energy. Ignoring coal emissions in the Global South doesn’t give us a free pass in the Global North. We all face the consequences, even if those in the Global South face the worst consequences of a problem they didn’t create.
Still, we also face the consequences of inadequate climate action. According to the Canadian Climate Institute, extreme weather disasters cost $1.8 billion in insured losses in 2024, and climate-related costs for the average household are estimated at $700. Increases in food prices caused partially by high temperatures, droughts, and floods are already impacting us.
What’s more, the negotiations in Belém will help determine whether the “green economy” becomes a reality or remains a buzzword, impacting our future job prospects. The promise of a green economy is enormous.
The International Labour Organization estimates that with effective policies in place, 24 million jobs could be created by 2030 worldwide. Up to 400,000 of those jobs could be created in Canada. But this will require an effective policy that invests in infrastructure like public transit and renewable energy instead of investing in pipelines that will become stranded assets as global demand for oil decreases.
COP30 could also be pivotal for Queen’s students interested in graduate school or research careers. Some of the federal grants that fund labs and research at Queen’s can be guided by national climate plans to meet international commitments. These international commitments can translate into funding programs for research projects. The results of the COP negotiations may also determine the types of research questions we need to ask going forward. My own research examines the impacts of the climate finance commitments made at COPs.
Climate change impacts every aspect of life on our planet, so no matter what you’re studying, it’s important to pay attention. As part of the university community, we can also do our part locally. We can engage with our peers and join local environmental groups. We can also hold our university accountable and continue to demand Queen’s divest from fossil fuels in its endowment funds.
A lot has changed since the Paris Agreement was a promise made a decade ago, and now our generation is about to find out whether those promises are holding up.
Christina Frendo is a second-year Global Development Studies Phd student.
Tags
Climate change, COP30, natural disasters
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