The Toronto Blue Jays’ struggles were inevitable

This year has been a big swing and a miss for a Blue Jays team with high hopes.

The Toronto Blue Jays find themselves in an uncomfortable place, sitting 5.5 games out of a wildcard spot and last in the American League East division. A far fall from grace after finishing as American League East champions and going on a Cinderella run that took them all the way to Game seven of the World Series, where they lost to a super team, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It was an offseason of high expectations for obvious reasons, particularly with the majority of the team contractually still on the books for this season. It came with some exits, including fan favourite and one of the Blue Jays statically best hitters, Bo Bichette, who left for greener pastures in New York along with a $42 million dollar a year salary. On top of that, starting rotation mainstay Chris Bassett signing in Baltimore was another blow that had to be addressed to compete again this season.

The front office responded with a pledge from ownership to spend. They brought in Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, and Tyler Rogers to fill the holes. Cease, a solid MLB starting pitcher, who has performed at Cy Young candidate level, has exceeded expectations. Okamoto, a star infielder in the Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan, has provided some of the only sources of power in the Blue Jays lineup, knocking 22 home runs and 62 RBI. However, he’s also struggled with high strikeout numbers (currently 9th in the MLB, with 121). Rogers, a high leverage reliever with experience, has performed admirably, with his funky delivery continuing to give hitters fits at the plate.

Despite these additions, it hasn’t translated to wins, and Jays fans who started to follow the team during their run last year are perplexed. There are three distinct reasons this team’s struggles were inevitable.

Four players — George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, and Daulton Varsho —had career seasons at the plate in 2025, and that doesn’t include Addison Barger’s impressive rookie campaign that saw him hit 21 home runs and drive in 74 runs. Springer’s 2025 season was as shocking as any of them, as the 36-year-old had only been declining since being signed in 2021. Over half of the Jays’ offensive lineup hit at an unprecedented rate, and yet were all expected to do the same with even more pressure.

In the current season, the Blue Jays rank 25th in home runs, 26th in slugging, 28th in On Base Percentage (OBP) and 30th in RBI and Runs. In contrast to last year, their lowest offensive stat was home runs, in which they were tied for 11th in the MLB. They also led MLB in hits, OBP, and batting average. These glaring differences in rankings have led the Blue Jays needing to scrape together runs and trail from behind in over half of their games this season.

The clean fundamental baseball that was a team identity for the Blue Jays in 2025 has vanished in 2026. They currently rank the fifth highest in errors for a team in the MLB, which can’t happen when your offence is struggling to score runs. While their 2025 rank was 12th, their next man up mentality and their potent offence allowed them to get away with an average defence.

The inconsistency of the pitching staff as a whole has been an issue, with the team dealing with a number of injuries, specifically in the starting rotation. Jose Berrios, a workhorse who never missed a start, injured his elbow, requiring Tommy John surgery, which effectively ended his season in May. Cody Ponce, a starting pitcher who was signed from the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO), who was a former big leaguer and had promise to be a depth piece for the team, tore his ACL in his first start in April, which also ended his season.

Regardless of these injuries, the Blue Jays needed to have consistency from their starting pitchers. In particular, those who were instrumental in their success during their playoff run in 2025.

All of these things have not gone the Blue Jays’ way, without even mentioning their highest paid player, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is having his worst statistical offensive season in his eight-year career. He has only hit 6 home runs, none of which were at home, and has only driven in 41 runs.

It’s been an incredibly disappointing season for the Blue Jays organization, who had ambitious goals of continuing their success from just a year ago. Regardless of their struggles, they rank in the top five in the MLB for attendance, and have had a high increase on ticket prices.

All this to say, the Rogers Centre may have to wait another year for an opportunity to host a World Series again.

Tags

baseball, Blue Jays, World Series

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